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Before we dig into the nuts and bolts of Sunday’s Super Bowl 2026 showdown between the Patriots and Seahawks, it might be instructive to look at some betting trends from the Big Game over the years.
I say “might be” instructive because the problem with trends is that there are often multiple compelling numbers that point to each side. Then, it’s up to the bettor to decide which angles matter more than others for the particular matchup.
Even with that, it’s never a bad thing to be armed with some historical knowledge. Hat tip to Evan Abrams of The Post’s betting content partner Action Network for these.
Trends that favor the Patriots
— Underdogs have covered the spread in the past five Super Bowls. They have won the past three outright and four of the past five. And ‘dogs are 15-7 Against The Spread (ATS) in the past 22 Super Bowls.
— In the past 30 years, when there has been a spread of 4.5 points or more, the underdog is 12-2-2 ATS, including spread wins in the past seven instances. (And in the four most recent of those, the spread was exactly 4.5 points).
I consider these to be notable trends because when we look at these two teams, it’s easy to conclude that Seattle has the advantage in talent and performance at a lot of positions.
But if you were to go year-by-year, your pregame analysis of which team is “clearly better” would have resulted in a losing wager.
— The Patriots played three playoff games to the Seahawks’ two. You’d think that means Seattle would be a little fresher for this game, but the numbers show the opposite.
Teams that played the wild-card game are 13-4 straight up and 14-2-1 ATS in the Super Bowl when matched against a team that had a first-round bye.
Not sure what to make of this one. It’s counterintuitive, but the results are pretty stark.
— Much of the shade being thrown the Patriots’ way this week has to do with their easy schedule this season. New England has the fourth-worst strength of schedule figure in the Super Bowl era. But guess what, the three teams with lower SOS numbers (1999 Rams, 1970 Colts, and 1972 Dolphins) all won their Super Bowls.
Again, this is another one that tests logic. Those other teams that did it were long ago. It makes sense to question whether the Patriots have beaten quality opponents. Even in the playoffs, New England has drawn the benefit of going against a decimated Chargers offensive line and Broncos backup quarterback in a blizzard.
Trends that favor the Seahawks
— The Seahawks are the team that plays its home games closer to the Super Bowl site in Santa Clara, Calif. The “closer” team has won seven of the past 10 Super Bowls and is 34-25 all-time.
Those are straight up results, so the Seahawks could add a win for the “closer” sides and still not cover. With two weeks to prepare and travel, this trend isn’t so compelling.
— The Seahawks covered the spread in their NFC Championship game, but the Patriots were ATS losers in the AFC game. Since 1970, teams that won their championship game but failed to cover are 4-10 straight up and 2-11-1 ATS in the Super Bowl.
I’m not discounting this one, which tells us that in the most recent action, Seattle exceeded expectations and New England came up a bit short. It’s the most current snapshot of the teams’ strength, possibly. Conversely, we don’t know how much of an effect the snowstorm in Denver had on that result. Do the Patriots cover on a clear field, or do they lose outright?
OK, so let’s drill in …
Let’s start with this: I picked the 49ers to cover against the Seahawks, and also picked the Rams to cover and win outright. One of the reasons I listed in fading Seattle in the NFC Championship was Sam Darnold.
The Rams were the team that tortured Darnold in the 2024 playoffs when he was the quarterback of the Vikings, sacking him nine times in a 27-9 Los Angeles rout.
This time was different, as Darnold threw for 346 yards and three touchdowns and was sacked just three times. Seattle’s offensive line protected him far better, and his top weapons stepped up. And Darnold has a lot of them.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who led the NFL with 1,793 receiving yards in the regular season, caught 10 passes vs. the Rams for 153 yards and a touchdown.
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Kenneth Walker had just 62 yards on the ground but has proven to be a consistent threat, though the absence of Zach Charbonnet and his 12 regular-season touchdowns takes some of the variety out of Seattle’s rushing attack.
Still, the Seahawks have a lot of ways to go at it. Tight end A.J. Barner had 519 yards and six receiving touchdowns. Cooper Kupp is a Super Bowl MVP who got into the end zone vs. the Rams. So did Jake Bobo, who can make a huge play if the defense forgets him. Then there’s Rashid Shaheed, a dangerous receiver who also nuked the 49ers game by returning the opening kickoff for a touchdown.
Darnold infamously said he saw ghosts in a 2019 Monday night loss, 33-0, to the Patriots. I doubt those visions will recur here if they didn’t in his rematch with a Rams team that had done him dirty.
And I don’t think the colossal Malcolm Butler interception of Russell Wilson in Super Bowl XLIX to cap the 2014 season will have much sway other than to point out that the Seahawks really should have beaten the Patriots that night 11 years ago.
On the other side, I just don’t see as many playmakers for the Patriots who would scare the Seahawks defense. True, the Rams rolled up 479 total yards, but that was with Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. Drake Maye, an older Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte don’t strike quite the same.
So the selection here is the Seahawks, those Patriots-leaning trends above be damned, because I believe the difference between these two teams is closer to a touchdown.
As for the total, it’s been flying Over except for the bad-weather games. When teams start many drives at the 35 or beyond, it makes a difference.
The picks: Seahawks -4.5 (-110, BetMGM) and Over 45.5 (-110).
Seahawks, 30-23.
CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY: 1-3 (0-2 sides, 1-1 Over/Unders).
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Seahawks (Locks 8-13 in 2025-26).
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Dave Blezow’s one of the longest tenured NFL handicappers at the Post with picks dating back to 1994. He won the Post’s NFL betting standings in 2021 and the Playoffs most recently in 2023.
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