Sara Duterte Faces Impeachment Trial With Philippine Presidential Dream At Stake

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Bloomberg contacted or sought to contact all of the country’s 24 senators for this story, though one is in hiding and another has been arrested for corruption charges. Some 22 senators are expected to serve as jurors, and two allied to Duterte said there’s no way the prosecution can win.

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“They don’t have the votes to impeach Vice President Sara,” Senator Imee Marcos said in an interview in late May. The senator is estranged from her brother, the president.

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“This is a futile exercise,” Senator Rodante Marcoleta, another Duterte ally, said in a separate interview.

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But the Duterte camp lost its thin majority and leadership of the Senate last month after one member was arrested for corruption charges while another went back into hiding, fearing that the Marcos administration would enforce an ICC arrest warrant. Two others have moved away from the Duterte-friendly bloc, whose nine members are still technically enough to block a conviction.

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Senator Erwin Tulfo, who is part of the majority, said it’s the duty of senator-judges to “decide the case based solely on the evidence presented during the impeachment trial.”

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Meanwhile, Senator Risa Hontiveros, who is neither allied with Marcos nor Duterte, warned against predicting a result.

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“Some colleagues have said, ‘don’t presume that just because I’m in the majority or don’t presume that just because I’m in the minority that I’ll either vote to convict or vote to acquit,’” Hontiveros said in an interview last week. 

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Hontiveros, who is open to challenging Duterte in the 2028 race, also noted that while the constitution requires two-thirds of the 24-member chamber to convict, the absence of two senators raises legal questions on how the two-thirds would be determined.

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Tensions escalated last week as the Office of the Ombudsman, headed by Marcos’ former justice secretary, filed a plunder case against Senator Marcoleta for allegedly failing to declare campaign donations. 

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Marcoleta, who belongs to an influential church that staged protests last week, says the “trumped up” charges are aimed at preventing him from participating in Duterte’s trial. 

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Prosecutors are pushing to open Duterte’s tax records and they want bank representatives and government officials to testify at the trial. Listed among witnesses is a court sheriff whom Duterte, then mayor of Davao City, reportedly punched in 2011 to prove her “tendency to inflict violence.”

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The vice president’s office did not respond to a request for comment, but her counsel said the defense is confident in its position.

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“The prosecution is entitled to present the witnesses that it believes will support its case, just as the defense is entitled to test their testimony through cross-examination and present its own evidence,” Duterte’s lawyer Michael Poa said. 

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A potentially lengthy trial that reveals anomalies would damage Duterte, but an acquittal would create a “feeling of vindication” and energize her supporters, according to Alan German, president of political branding firm Agents International Inc.

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And any unfortunate incident that could befall her 81-year-old father Rodrigo while in detention in The Hague would further boost Sara Duterte’s 2028 bid, the political strategist said. “That will be a big shot of adrenaline to her campaign — hundred percent,” German added.

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The vice president also faces graft and plunder complaints at the Office of the Ombudsman over her alleged misuse of public funds.

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Marcos said it would be much easier if Duterte would directly answer the allegations against her, rather than through lawyers. “If it was me being accused, I would almost insist over the advice of lawyers. If they advise me not to appear, I would insist on appearing,” Marcos told reporters last week as he wrapped up his visit to Canada.