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(Bloomberg) — Oil industry consultant Rystad Energy has slashed its estimate for US onshore crude growth by more than half for this year, amid lower commodity prices and higher costs brought on by President Donald Trump’s global trade war.
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Expansion of oil production in the lower 48 US states is expected to be less than 150,000 barrels a day, as measured from the end of last year to the end of 2025, Rystad said Monday in a report. That’s down from a previous growth estimate of about 300,000 barrels a day. The consultant expects oil output in the region next year to decline based on current prices.
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“We expect activity declines to be most concentrated in the Permian, as other basins already are in maintenance mode,” said Amber McCullagh, senior vice president at Rystad, referring the Permian Basin, the world’s biggest shale patch, which is located in West Texas and New Mexico.
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Crude prices have plunged more than 10% this month in the wake of Trump’s trade war and a decision by OPEC to beef up a production increase scheduled for later this year. Those lower prices, coupled with the trade war, have caused significant unease across the industry and threatened to undercut the president’s own goal of ramping up fossil-fuel production.
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Earlier this month, the Energy Information Administration reduced its total US oil production forecast for the year, which also includes offshore and conventional wells on land. It now expects 13.51 million barrels a day, down from a previous projection of 13.61 million, amid growing unease about the US shale patch.
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—With assistance from Mia Gindis.
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