Russia’s War Death Tally Spurs European Scrutiny on Recruitment

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(Bloomberg) — The number of Russian soldiers killed in action in the war on Ukraine has jumped in recent weeks, a dynamic that — if sustained — could make it hard for the Kremlin to replace troops without some form of mobilization, according to European estimates. 

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Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said Kyiv’s forces killed 35,000 Russian troops in December. In the grim calculus of war, he cited an ambition to raise that number to 50,000 by this summer — a figure that would roughly double the monthly average calculated by NATO in 2025. 

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The higher lethality is a result of more effective Ukrainian drone operations, with the ratio of killed to wounded skewing recently toward war dead, according to assessments from multiple European governments. With those estimates showing that the number of fatalities has reached the Kremlin’s recruitment level, several of the people said the trajectory would make it difficult to replace losses without a mobilization drive. 

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But President Vladimir Putin would be unlikely to opt for such a mobilization, an option that’s proved deeply unpopular within Russia. He’s avoided any repeat of a September 2022 call-up of 300,000 reservists that prompted an exodus of hundreds of thousands from the country and triggered a spike in public discontent with the war.

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The European assessment complicates a picture championed by Moscow — and at times echoed by President Donald Trump — that Russia’s advantage on the ground means that victory is inevitable. The trajectory of Kremlin losses could weaken Putin’s hand at the negotiating table in coming months, according to people familiar with the assessments, who spoke on condition of anonymity. 

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Territory has moved to the center of US-brokered talks, with Russia standing by its demand that Ukraine cede all of Donbas, which includes the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, including areas that the Kremlin’s military has failed to seize in four years of war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has rejected that option, but has touted US-provided guarantees that would prevent a future attack after a ceasefire. 

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Talks in the United Arab Emirates, including another face-to-face meeting between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators, are set to resume over the weekend. 

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Frozen Front

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And while Russian forces have taken to a relentless missile-and-drone campaign that’s crippled Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, leaving vast swathes of the country without heating or electricity in the winter months, its military has made only marginal progress on the front line. 

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Large-scale strategic breakthroughs have remained elusive on the 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) front line for months, with entrenched forces limited to tactical fighting. While Russian troops have sought to consolidate their position around the city of Slovyansk in northern Donetsk, Kyiv has reported some advances near the embattled town of Pokrovsk, according to the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War.