Russia’s drone tech is a looming terror risk — now available on eBay

A decade or two ago, air travelers were right to worry that terrorists, emboldened after 9/11, might seek to take down airliners with shoulder-launched surface-to-air missiles.

That threat has receded — but a new one is emerging from the battlefields of Ukraine, one that’s far more insidious and difficult to tackle.

A threat that you can buy on eBay.

In the early 2000s, after an al Qaeda-linked group in Mombasa tried to shoot down a passenger plane with an anti-aircraft missile in 2002, airports worldwide expanded their security perimeters.

The United States instituted a buyback scheme to recover Stinger missiles it had supplied to groups like the Mujahedeen in Afghanistan, and Israel mandated protective jammers for all domestic passenger fleets.

But the old missiles floating around the world’s black-market arms bazaars became less of a threat over time: rocket fuel degrades, coolant gas leaks, thermal batteries expire.

Law-enforcement efforts, and an international treaty called the Wassenaar Arrangement, meant that fewer missiles were diverted from arsenals into criminal hands.

In any case, such missiles are expensive, costing at least $60,000 each.

With no known attempts at terrorist missile attacks on airliners since 2009, the missile scare has gradually receded.

Meanwhile, as Ukraine fights back against Russia’s invasion, air defense has rapidly evolved.

Both sides have fielded large numbers of low-cost attack drones like the Shahed — too many to be shot down by expensive missiles like the Stinger.

Both Russian and Ukrainian forces have responded by developing small, low-cost interceptor drones.

The initial versions of these were slightly adapted from the First-Person-View racing drones used to attack ground targets like tanks: To carry out an intercept, the drone operator spotted an enemy drone and rammed it.

Ukraine’s latest versions are more aerodynamic, bullet-shaped craft optimized for high-speed operation, often capable of accelerating to 200 mph or more and carrying a small explosive warhead.

Small enough to hold in one hand but with a range of several miles, interceptors like the Sting made by Ukrainian group Wild Hornets are responsible for around 40% of Kyiv’s drone kills.

The Russians, in contrast, favor a simpler design: The odd-looking Yolka (“Fir Tree”) interceptor, with a double x-wing that makes it resemble a Christmas tree with four propellers.

It weighs about three pounds, and it’s fired simply by pointing it in the general direction of an incoming drone and pulling the trigger.

Stereo cameras linked to an AI control system lock on to the target and home in on it at around 80 mph.

Russa’s Yolka drone interceptor.

It’s a point-and-shoot weapon with no skill required, and costs just $500 to make.

Interestingly, Yolka has no explosive warhead: It relies purely on impact speed to bring down the target.

That’s apparently because its developers wanted to get it into service fast — and the Kremlin’s bureaucracy adds a lot of red tape to anything involving explosives.

Yolka is a crude, basic weapon that only works in good weather conditions, failing when lighting is bad; its effective range is limited, perhaps three miles.

But there are plenty of videos of Yolkas bringing down targets, and it’s considered reliable enough to arm Vladimir Putin’s own security detail as an anti-drone measure.

Yolka is the Kalashnikov of drone interceptors: not as good as slicker alternatives, but simple to use, cheap, and readily produced in large quantities.

And while the current version is trained to seek and attack drones, a small software upgrade could redirect it to seek a helicopter cockpit, or the jet engine of an aircraft.

These small drones can be turned out at scale, with a production cost of just a few hundred dollars each.

Right now, copycat versions of them can be had via eBay for under $7,000.

That means they’re likely to get everywhere.

And even though the risk they pose to passenger aircraft is far less than that of a supersonic missile — it could only hit an airliner during take-off or on its landing approach —  the danger is real.

The problem will come when weapons like Yolka flood the international market.

With no explosives, it’s technically not even a weapon, just a high-speed drone, meaning it would slip easily through existing controls.

In the United States, you wouldn’t need a firearms license to buy one.

At a bare minimum, all nations need to update their regulations to prevent these drone interceptors from falling into the wrong hands.

“Dual use” drones that can be used for warfare as well as civilian applications need to be scrutinized especially closely.

Law-enforcement agencies must be aware of how easily interceptors can be made at home from commercial components; Ukraine’s vast array of interceptors are being made by start-ups in garage workshops.

The risk to aircraft from interceptor drones is theoretical at present — but it’s foolish to wait for an attack before acting.

David Hambling is the author of “Swarm Troopers: How Small Drones Will Conquer the World.”