Russell Hits Bear Market With Small Caps Buffeted by Tariff Wave

The revival in small caps expected from Donald Trump’s America First agenda instead turned into a rout for shares in companies whose fortunes are most closely tied to the US economy.

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Published Apr 03, 2025  •  3 minute read

Wall Street signage across form the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, US, on Thursday, Jan. 2, 2025. US stocks powered higher on the back of optimism over the technology giants, signaling that Wall Street is set to rebound from the four-day slump that marked the end of 2024. Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg Photo by Michael Nagle /Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) — The revival in small caps expected from Donald Trump’s America First agenda instead turned into a rout for shares in companies whose fortunes are most closely tied to the US economy.

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The Russell 2000 Index plunged as much as 6.6% Thursday and is now down more than 20% from its all-time high reached in late 2021. The index came within a whisker of that record in November after Trump’s reelection.

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The president’s tariff announcement Wednesday roiled global financial markets with economists rapidly raising the odds for recessions in economies around the world. Small caps were supposed to benefit from Trump’s purported focus on revitalizing American manufacturing, but instead his haphazard trade policy has left business owners uncertain about the costs of everything from metals to raw materials and labor.

“The greater uncertainty created by tariffs and how global trade will evolve in coming weeks is a huge hit for small caps,” said Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading. “While the group is expected to benefit from the hoped-for onshoring of production that is the goal of the tariffs, there will be significant friction and uncertainty for the foreseeable future.”

The index’s steady decline since touching a high in late November was led by energy, technology and consumer discretionary sectors that have all lost around a quarter of their market value since then. All eleven of the sectors are in the red over that period.

Biotechnology companies Applied Therapeutics Inc. and Q32 Bio Inc. were the biggest percentage losers, with solar power company Sunnova Energy International Inc., Richard Branson’s space tourism firm Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc., and apparel company Victoria’s Secret & Co. also among big decliners.

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Small-caps typically tend to fall faster and deeper than the broader stock market as recessions approach. And they’re usually the first to rebound on the way out of a downturn, making the group a useful predictor in times of turmoil.

The tables have turned swiftly on small caps. They were initially seen as one of the biggest winners of Trump’s election victory on promises of a protectionist regime for US businesses, a stance investors expected to be a positive for these firms. That optimism fueled a furious rally in the group right after the presidential election and pushed the Russell 2000 within inches of its 2021 record in late November.

However, as traders re-assessed the impacts of the new trade regime along with signs of slowing economic growth, stubborn inflation and still-high interest rates, the outlook for small-caps muddied rapidly. The wave of new reciprocal tariffs that Trump laid out on Wednesday make matters even worse. 

“Small-cap multiples appear to be washed out after the correction to start 2025,” Bloomberg Intelligence strategists Michael Casper and Gina Martin Adams wrote in a note to clients on Thursday. “Yet the trade dispute is casting a shadow over rest-of-year revenue forecasts as the risk of a misstep that puts the US into recession rises.”  

Signs of trouble are building everywhere. Several surveys show that the American spender’s confidence is weakening. 

“Since the pandemic year-over-year performance in the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 has been closely aligned with trends in the University of Michigan sentiment indicator in particular,” said Lori Calvasina, head of US equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

That specific indicator tumbled last month to a more than two-year low, data on March 28 showed.

—With assistance from Cristin Flanagan.

(Updates details throughout.)

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