Rupee Rout Dims Hopes of a Strong Recovery in Indian Stocks

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(Bloomberg) — The Indian rupee’s slide to repeated record lows is finally starting to pinch the equity market, with analysts warning that prolonged weakness could undermine confidence in the nascent recovery of the $5.2 trillion stock market.

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Asia’s worst-performing currency this year is emerging as a near-term threat to a rebound in Indian stocks, despite strong economic growth and a revival in corporate earnings. In December, global funds have withdrawn $1.6 billion from local equities, reversing $1.3 billion of inflows over the prior two months. They have also pulled money from local debt.

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With India heavily dependent on overseas capital to fund its current-account gap and corporate expansion, sustained outflows threaten to keep equities under pressure.

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“Foreign investors have continued to pare exposure to Indian equities and debt, resulting in steady dollar outflows,” said Akshat Garg, head of research at Choice Wealth. There is “growing pressure on the currency amid a combination of global uncertainty and India-specific capital flow challenges,” he added. 

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The steepest US tariffs in Asia have weighed on sentiment as traders await the two nations to finalize negotiations. The benchmark NSE Nifty 50 Index retreated about 1.7% from near an all-time high in November, before recovering some losses.

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The latest setback caps a year in which Indian shares have lagged most emerging-market peers. Slowing earnings growth, elevated valuations and a lack of compelling artificial intelligence-related themes have already driven a rotation toward North Asian markets. 

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The currency has fallen more than 1% in December to 90.7337 per dollar on Monday. Strategists at Kotak Securities expect it to reach 91 by the end of the month. The Reserve Bank of India may not strongly resist further weakness in the current environment, prioritizing growth over currency defense, according to Barclays Plc.

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That risks prolonging the pain for equities. 

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A weaker rupee does benefit companies that earn a large share of revenue overseas, particularly technology exporters. A gauge of information-technology stocks has climbed about 14% since the end of September, coinciding with the period in which rupee losses deepened.

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For now, traders are bracing for more volatility as the rupee’s slide compounds concerns over trade, earnings and capital flows. Until the currency stabilizes or global conditions turn more supportive, India’s long-awaited equity rebound may continue to struggle for traction.

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Equities face muted returns as weaker rupee, range-bound government bond yields, and modest earnings growth “favor selective sectoral exposure,” Dhananjay Sinha, head of research at Systematix Shares and Stocks Ltd. wrote in a note. 

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A sliding rupee benefits tech, pharmaceutical and metal stocks, but hurts banks, energy producers and infrastructure companies, Sinha wrote. 

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