Royals have a Carlos Estevez problem

The headline for Carlos Estevez on Saturday night was the nightmare ending -- Dominic Smith hit a walk-off grand slam off the Kansas City Royals' closer to give the Atlanta Braves a dramatic win.

But that's not the biggest problem. Estevez is nowhere near the same pitcher he was last season.

Yes it's early, still March, and maybe that's all there is to this. But right now, the numbers look bad.

Last season, Estevez averaged 95.9 miles per hour on his fastball.

This season, Estevez has thrown his heater at an average of 91.2 miles per hour.

His slider (87.3 to 83.5) and changeup (87.9 to 82.3) have also declined quite a bit in velocity. Clearly, he's not getting the same juice on his pitches that he was last season.

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At the slower velocity, his slider and changeup are both moving more vertically, although his slider is moving less horizontally.

It's still a very small sample, so it's impossible to say whether this is going to continue.

The next time Estevez takes the mound, though, those numbers are worth watching. If he can't start to pick up his velocity, it might be tough for him to be as effective out of the Kansas City bullpen as he was last season. And for a team hoping to compete in the AL Central, the closer spot has to be steady, not erratic.

Relief pitching is a fickle game, both season-to-season and game-to-game. It's hard to be steady in a whole career based on small samples.

Right now, though, Estevez needs to improve in a hurry.

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