Royal LePage predicts market revival for ski homes in 2025

69% of recreational property specialists report steady demand in their regions

Published Nov 14, 2024  •  2 minute read

While home sales were down this year in key ski regions in Ontario, Alberta, and most of British Columbia, Quebec has already reported a notable rise in demand. Photo by Breckenridge Ski Resort

Royal LePage’s latest Winter Recreational Property Report offers an optimistic forecast for 2025, predicting a 7.5 per cent increase in ski chalet prices. After two years of limited activity, the report suggests that improving borrowing conditions and renewed buyer confidence will fuel a comeback for seasonal recreational properties across Canada. While home sales were down this year in key ski regions in Ontario, Alberta, and most of British Columbia, Quebec has already reported a notable rise in demand.

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The national median price for single-family homes in ski areas fell by a modest 0.4 per cent, mirroring similar trends in urban real estate. Despite the sluggish sales activity in many recreational regions, Phil Soper, chief executive of Royal LePage, noted the underlying strength of the sector.

“This is a testament to the resilience of the winter recreational segment, even under the pressure of the 2023-2024 high interest rate environment.” He went on to predict that the market would bounce back in 2025. “With four rate cuts now under our belt and more likely to come, the winter rec market will spring to life again.”

Across the country, 69 per cent of Royal LePage’s recreational property specialists report steady demand in their regions, and 63 per cent have seen an uptick in inventory compared to 2023. However, 75 per cent of the specialists noted longer selling times, with more properties staying on the market. High borrowing costs have kept many would-be buyers at bay, but Soper remains confident that the market will bounce back: “With the Bank of Canada expected to make additional cuts… consumers will feel increasingly confident about pulling the trigger on that winter cabin or mountain chalet purchase.”

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According to Royal LePage, 38 per cent of regional specialists also observed a noticeable uptick in inquiries following the April announcement of capital gains tax changes which took effect on June 25.

Unlike urban buyers, recreational homebuyers tend to have equity tied up in their primary residences, which makes interest rates particularly important in their decision making. As Soper explained, “Though some buyers pay in cash or use equity from their primary home, many still watch interest rates closely as an indicator of the economy’s health and whether it’s the right time to buy their dream vacation home.” As borrowing costs drop, buyer confidence typically rises, encouraging those sitting on equity in their primary homes to act.

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However, Soper also notes that additional factors like wildfires in Alberta’s Jasper National Park are contributing to today’s market dynamics: “Recent capital gains tax changes and frequent climate events… are factors buyers also consider in today’s market.”

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