Red Sox receive pessimistic outlook thanks to Trevor Story among four hitters

Mar 29, 2026; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Boston Red Sox shortstop Trevor Story (10) reacts after striking out in the eighth inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

The Boston Red Sox, in a very tough AL East, will have a tall task making it back to the postseason. But, on paper, the roster is good enough to return to the playoffs.

Their rotation and bullpen are both in great shape, while their lineup is improved from last year as well. However, even with the addition of Willson Contreras and a full season out of Roman Anthony, there are a few main areas of concern for Boston.

Paul Hembekides of ESPN believes that the Red Sox aren't in as good a spot as it might seem on paper. He is worried about Trevor Story and six other hitters in the Boston lineup being "land mines" for the Red Sox in 2026.

Red Sox get pessimistic outlook for 2026 season

"FanGraphs projects the Red Sox to score 4.6 runs per game, and I'm taking the under," Hembekides writes. "They have only two hitters I can promise will post an above-average batting line against both sides of the platoon - Roman Anthony and Willson Contreras. And that's because I see potential land mines."

With Hembekides only believing in Anthony and Contreras, Story, one of the better sluggers for the Red Sox a year ago, is an obvious player this ESPN analyst isn't a fan of.

His concern with Story is about whether the Red Sox shortstop can outperform his underlying metrics this season, as he did a year ago. His actual .741 OPS compared to his "deserved" OPS of .684 is something that could flip this year.

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But, other than Story, what about Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreau, and Carlos Narvaez? Hembekides is concerned about Narvaeaz post All-Star production (.619 OPS) being his true hitting value. For Duran and Abreu, their OPS against lefties is a concern.

While all of these other players in the lineup might have some potential, they are also players who have concerns attached to their game.

As Hembekides noted, for the Red Sox to have success in a stacked AL East, "several low-probability bets need to cash."

It's a gamble for Boston this season, as the offense could be a major let-down if some of these riskier hitters don't play well in 2026.

The Red Sox could still be a top team, and it wouldn't be a surprise at all. But the chance of failure cannot be ignored, especially since it's entirely feasible that Boston's offense struggles mightily this season.

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