Rays vs. Yankees: Game 4 prediction, odds, injuries, and picks - July 31, 2025

The Yankees and Rays complete their four-game series Thursday afternoon in the Bronx, with New York leading the series 2-1 and the season series 6-4. The Rays have lost eight of their past 10 games and are falling below .500, while the Yankees are hanging on to a playoff position with subpar offense and rotation.

Thursday’s matinee features a contrast in stability on the mound. Ryan Pepiot has been one of the few steady arms in Tampa Bay’s rotation, while Marcus Stroman continues to search for form since coming off the IL.

With both offenses lacking punch in recent weeks, this one could come down to execution and late-game bullpen performance.

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Starting Pitchers

Ryan Pepiot (Rays - RHP)

2025 Stats: 6-8, 3.42 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 124 K in 126.1 IP

Last Start (July 27 vs. Reds): 6.0 IP, 2 H, 2 R (0 ER), 4 BB, 6 K – No-decision

Pepiot may not have the record to show for it, but he’s quietly been a reliable presence for the Rays.

Holding opposing hitters to a .224 average with a strong 3.42 ERA, he’s shown the ability to limit damage even when his control wavers. His 8.8 K/9 gives him swing-and-miss potential, but free passes have been an issue at times.

Marcus Stroman (Yankees - RHP)

2025 Stats: 2-2, 6.09 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 23 K in 34.0 IP

Last Start (July 26 vs. Phillies): 3.2 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 4 K – Loss

It’s been a rocky road for Stroman since returning from injury. He’s struggled to pitch deep into games and hasn’t looked like his usual groundball-inducing self.

With six home runs allowed in 34 innings and a bloated 4.2 BB/9 rate, command has been his biggest issue. Against a Rays team loaded with left-handed hitters, he’ll need to find his groove early.

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Hot Hitters to Watch

Brandon Lowe - Rays

Back from the injured list just two days ago, Brandon Lowe wasted no time making an impact. He went 2-for-4 with a double and an RBI in Tuesday’s win, bringing a much-needed spark to Tampa’s lineup.

Now slashing .272 with 19 homers and 51 RBIs on the season, the veteran second baseman remains one of the most dangerous lefty bats in the Rays’ order.

Giancarlo Stanton - Yankees

Although he’s not putting up the gaudy numbers of his prime years, Stanton’s still doing damage when it counts. Batting .271 with seven homers and 21 RBIs in limited action this season, he’s provided timely power and remains a key presence in the middle of the Yankees’ lineup.

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Injury Report

Tampa Bay Rays

• Ha-Seong Kim (SS) - 10-day IL
• Stuart Fairchild (RF) - 10-day IL
• Bryan Baker (RP) - day-to-day
• Several pitchers (Rodriguez, Faedo, McClanahan, Lavender) on 60-day IL, season-ending or long-term

New York Yankees:

• Aaron Judge (OF) - 10-day IL
• Gerrit Cole (SP) - 60-day IL
• Clarke Schmidt (SP), Fernando Cruz (RP), Ryan Yarbrough (LHP) - 15-day IL
• Luis Gil (RHP) - 60-day IL

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Current Odds

Run Line:

• Rays -1.5 (+147)
• Yankees +1.5 (−180)

Total:

• Over 8.5 (−118)
• Under 8.5 (−103)

Moneyline:

• Rays −108
• Yankees −112

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Best Bets & Prediction

Final Score Prediction: Yankees 5, Rays 4

Top Picks

1. Yankees Moneyline (−112) – Home field and Stroman’s consistency give New York a slight edge in a close game.
2. Over 8.5 Total Runs (−118) – Both starters have been hittable lately, and both bullpens have been stretched in recent games.

Value Parlay: Yankees ML + Over 8.5 - Combines home advantage and shaky mid-rotation starters into a high-reward combo.

Edited by Bhargav