The AFC playoff picture was pretty well-defined entering the trade deadline, at least in terms of which teams are best positioned to make the cut.
With five teams sitting on two or fewer wins and both the Raiders and Ravens on downward trajectories, it's fair to say only nine teams see themselves as firmly in the race right now: the seven teams in playoff spots and the Browns and Texans, who still have different reasons to believe.
It's entirely possible the seven teams in playoff position through nine weeks are the same seven that make it past the regular season. Among them, who has the advantage?
Here's a look at how each AFC contender stacks up after a busy push to the trade deadline.
MORE: Grading every NFL trade deadline deal
Post-trade deadline AFC contender rankings
1. Bills (7-1)
The Bills might not have the most complete team in the AFC — or maybe they do — but they do have Josh Allen. You might say that hasn't been enough in the past, but we have learned in other sports that droughts are made to be broken and each team should be evaluated on the present rather than the past. In the present, Buffalo has what it takes to win the AFC, particularly with a leg up on the rest of the field for a first-round bye.
Buffalo didn't need to add to its offense at the trade deadline, but the addition of safety Amani Hooker was wise after C.J. Gardner-Johnson's release. The Bills don't want to put Allen in an impossible spot in the playoffs needing every win to come by shootout. After two strong defensive performances and the arrival of Hooker, the Bills have some real hope that the defense will be able to hold serve down the stretch and make this season different.
2. Jaguars (6-2)
The Jaguars have to be considered the Bills' top challenger in the AFC. Jacksonville already had Trevor Lawrence playing some of the best football of his career and a glut of weapons for him to work with. Now, a defense that was more vulnerable made three key additions in Jordan Davis, Jessie Bates and Davon Godchaux.
It's been a more challenging year for Davis, but he and Godchaux fill the void left by the injured DaVon Hamilton while Bates solves a major need at the back end of the defense. The Jaguars were already a top contender before the deadline and came away from it as a better team.
3. Chiefs (6-2)
The Chiefs have flaws, but they also have Patrick Mahomes. Andy Reid hasn't had Mahomes play like the Mahomes of the past this season, as the two-time MVP has been limited to shorter throws, but an offense that relies on yards after the catch has really only flopped in one game this season. Kenneth Walker III has added a new dynamic to the offense, and the arrival of Josh Downs at least gives Kansas City another competent pass-catcher.
With Mahomes under center and Steve Spagnuolo's defense always prepared for the stretch run, the Chiefs still have to strike some fear into opponents.
MORE: Chiefs' updated WR depth chart with Josh Downs
4. Broncos (7-2)
The Broncos are probably comfortable with no one believing in them at this point, but there should be legitimate questions about Denver's ceiling in a more traditional year in which more premier quarterbacks will be in the playoffs out of the AFC.
Denver passed on trading for a running back, meaning the backfield will remain by-committee and keep more pressure on Bo Nix. Can the offense do enough to get by? One advantage the Broncos do have is an AFC West lead, one that could remain intact through the end of the season because the Chiefs have such a difficult stretch of games starting on Thanksgiving.
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5. Bengals (6-2)
The Bengals haven't always passed the eye test this season, and their defense isn't going to intimidate anyone in the playoffs, but they know what works for them: throwing the football. Joe Burrow is playing out of his mind at the moment, and both Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins appear to be healthy and loaded with confidence. As long as that remains the case, Cincinnati can beat anyone.
6. Patriots (5-4)
The Patriots are the one current AFC playoff team that could be trouble, especially if the Ravens get themselves together or the Texans make a surge. New England's pass defense caved in against the Packers, and injuries to both wide receivers and running backs have left Drake Maye low on options offensively. Injuries are going to leave the Patriots undermanned against the Lions on Sunday, and a .500 record with seven weeks to go could spell danger for a team that would be one of the AFC's best at full strength.
7. Steelers (6-2)
Are the Steelers really a 6-2 team? Probably not. Pittsburgh has just one win against a team currently in a playoff spot, and most wins have been too close for comfort. The Steelers are going to come back down to Earth unless Mike McCarthy can really get the offense going, but with six wins already on the board, the math certainly works in Pittsburgh's favor when it comes to securing a playoff berth.
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