Putin Secures Another Strategic Ally as Trump Focuses on Iran

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Last week, the island received another shipment of Russian arms and equipment, this time a consignment of armored vehicles, small arms, ammunition and uniforms. The assistance will also include training for senior Malagasy military officials both at home and in Russia.

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A new pro-Russia political party was also launched. It’s the political wing of an organization in Madagascar called Friends of Russia and is promoting closer relations with Russia and the BRICS group of nations, according to African Initiative, a state-run Russian news agency.

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The developments have alarmed Putin’s adversaries because of the island’s location. “Russia seeks to exploit the opportunities opened up by the transition,” according to a note distributed among Western diplomats and seen by Bloomberg. “The situation in Madagascar directly involves the stability of a major geostrategic space linking Africa to the Indo-Pacific.”

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Russia’s relations with Africa run deep. During the Cold War, the Soviet Union supported decolonialization while many African leaders went there for military training or to study. More recently, Moscow has been flexing its soft power muscle in areas such as religion, fishing and grain shipments while developing disinformation networks.

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Lacking the money and resources of rivals such as China or the European Union, Russia has focused on more fragile states, offering military equipment, support and, in some cases, opened the door for its mining companies. Initially through the Wagner mercenary operation, Russia has supported the government against rebels in Central African Republic since 2018, securing access to diamond and gold operations.

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Madagascar is no different. The island nation of about 30 million people has a history of coups and sudden changes of government. Its top prosecutor said on April 2 a plot to assassinate President Randrianirina was foiled, and one of the main organizers was a fellow army colonel.  

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“The new regime feels quite vulnerable,” said Thierry Vircoulon, coordinator of the Observatory of Central and Southern Africa at the French Institute of International Relations “They come with a deal — security vs political support — and with mining assets will see what they can get.”

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Another area is energy. Before the war on Iran triggered the current market turmoil, liquefied natural gas was on Russia’s radar. A July 2025 report by the Center for African Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics in Moscow identified LNG supplies to South Africa as a potential new market. They would arrive via the Mozambique channel.

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Madagascar is the world’s fourth-biggest producer of key battery material cobalt and lags only China in terms of output of graphite, also used in batteries as well as furnace linings. Its reserves of rare earths are the world’s eighth largest, according to the US Geological Survey.

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It’s not the first time Russia has tried to establish a strong presence in Madagascar. During the 2018 election, Russian operatives published a newspaper, paid young people to attend rallies and journalists to write favorable articles as they tried to ensure the reelection of President Hery Rajaonarimampianina, the New York Times reported in 2019. He finished third and Rajoelina ultimately won.

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The effort burned bridges between Moscow and Madagascar, according to Will Brown, a senior policy fellow with the Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations. But this time around Russia has already won allies in the country and is building influence. 

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National Assembly Speaker Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko was first to announce the Russian aid and in November visited Moscow. He then declared that Russia had promised discounted fuel to ease power shortages on the island. On a recent visit to France, he told members of the Malagasy diaspora that existing oil and gas exploration agreements would be reviewed amid interest from Russian and Qatari companies.