PSU banks under pressure, more consolidation likely before fresh rally: Ajit Nayak

In a week marked by hesitation and subdued momentum, India’s benchmark indices have entered a phase where technical signals are beginning to matter more than directional conviction. With the Nifty struggling to find a clear trend and Bank Nifty witnessing visible pressure, market participants are turning cautious—yet not entirely bearish.

Speaking to ET Now, market expert Ajit Nayak from HDFC Securities offered a nuanced reading of the charts, suggesting that while the near-term mood may appear uncertain, underlying patterns hint at a potential continuation rather than a breakdown.

A “Liquidity Sweep” That Could Signal Upside
“First let us speak about the Nifty. So, if we look at the Nifty from a technical perspective, on 24th March it had made a similar kind of a low of 24,790 odd level and today there was an interesting pattern. We did break that low, but we did not sustain below that low. So, we call such behaviour as a sweep of liquidity.”

This “liquidity sweep,” as Nayak explains, is often interpreted as a trap for bearish traders. Markets briefly dip below key support levels, trigger stop losses, and then reverse—often leading to a move higher.

“So, whenever there is a sweep of liquidity, there is a high chance that the market tends to move in a northward territory and can test 24,300 level.”

Open Interest and VIX: The Real Story Beneath the Surface
Nayak emphasizes that price action alone does not tell the full story. He closely tracks open interest (OI) data to understand how large traders are positioned.

“At 24,000 level there is lot of put addition. So, if we see couple of sessions, there was lack of fear in the market but suddenly in a day or two we can see that fear coming back in the market, so that is not really a good sign.”

Volatility, too, is at a critical juncture. The India VIX has revisited an important support zone. “If we look at the India VIX, it was taking a support of 17.25 level from where exactly the breakout happened and we saw a rally till 29 level after giving that breakout and we are revisiting that neckline of 17.25. So, it is very important to watch this level.”

According to him, the interplay between VIX and Nifty will determine the next move.

“If we break that 17.29 level on a VIX and we see a rally in Nifty, so that will be a good sign for the trader and for a Nifty player as well that we are consolidating, we are taking a time-wise correction, not a price-wise correction.”

However, a spike in volatility could change the narrative.

“If it did not and this VIX is moving above 20 level and similar kind of OI data keeps on building up at the call side, then there is little risk for the market.”

Key Levels to Watch
For traders, clarity lies in levels rather than opinions. “So, for me as of now 23,800 is a very important level because there is a good intraday pattern which has happened today breaking the low and bouncing back above that low that is a bad trap sign and if it sustain about that level, we can see Nifty heading towards 24,400 to 24,500 mark.”

Stock Picks: A Balanced Approach in an Uncertain Market
Given the lack of a strong bullish setup, Nayak suggests a hedged approach—one long and one short trade.
“Because market is not very bullish friendly, so I am coming up with two picks. One I am looking for a short side and one I am looking for a long side.”
Hindalco (Short Call)

“So, I will come up with first pick as a Hindalco. Hindalco, if you look at the chart, there is some bearishness developing on a Hindalco chart. Also, if you look at a weekly, there is a clear-cut negative divergence which has happened on the Hindalco chart.”

He also points to broader weakness in the metals space.

“If we also look at the metal index, today metal index was showing some pain and similarly even the Hindalco is showing the same kind of pain, a relative performer in a downside.”

Trading strategy remains disciplined.
“So, I am considering Hindalco to sell with a stop loss of 1080, I am looking for the target of 980. The only request for the trader would be as soon as you are in a favour, it is very important to trail the stop loss because the overall trend of the market seems to be quite positive.”

Adani Ports (Long Call)
On the flip side, Nayak finds strength in Adani Ports.

“The second pick from my side is Adani Ports. So, Adani Port's chart is very fantastic. If we look at the chart from a weekly perspective or also from a daily perspective, we can see a deep cup pattern and it is sustaining above that 1600 odd mark.”

Even during market weakness, the stock has shown resilience.

“Today even in a falling market, it just tested the neckline of 1600 and closing above that level gives us a confidence that there is more steam left on the higher side.”

His recommendation:
“So, I would recommend to go long on Adani Ports with a stop loss of 1586, for the upside target of 1770.”

PSU Banks: More Consolidation Before Opportunity
The PSU banking space, one of the worst-performing sectors this week, is not yet ready for a rebound—at least from a technical standpoint.

“If you look at PSU index, if we look at on a monthly or a weekly time frame, yes, they are still positive. But the rally was so much and the angle of the rally is so steep that we should look for some more consolidation.”

Nayak advises patience rather than aggressive buying.

“If it consolidates for, say, next four to five weeks, then I would be looking for the PSU stocks to go for a long side because if we look at the chart on a monthly time frame, there is a negative pattern on the candlestick which has developed.”

Key levels remain crucial.
“So, I would wait for the PSU to come around 7500 mark, then consolidate and give some bullish indication with a good candlestick pattern and then we would think of entering on a long side, otherwise till it does not cross 9070 mark it is a sell on a rally kind of a sector.”

The Takeaway
For now, the market appears to be in a phase of digestion rather than distribution. While volatility and global cues continue to inject uncertainty, technical indicators suggest that the broader trend may still be intact—provided key levels hold. In such an environment, discipline, selective positioning, and respect for risk management may matter more than chasing momentum.