Posthaste: Trump’s new 50% tariffs will hit these 3 provinces the hardest, crippling some industries, says economist

U.S. President Donald Trump arrives to speak at Wheeler High School in Marietta, Ga., on July 22, 2026. Trump this week ramped up his tariff threats against Canada. Photo by SAUL LOEB /AFP via Getty Images

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United States President Donald Trump rattled Canada’s economic foundations again this week by threatening new tariffs of 50 per cent on Canadian exports that are likely to hit the economies of British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec the hardest, says one economist.

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The tariffs, which are set to take effect on Aug. 19, would hit about 13 per cent of B.C.’s total exports, nine per cent of Ontario’s and 10 per cent of Quebec’s, Bryan Yu, chief economist at Central 1 Credit Union in Vancouver, said in a note on July 23.

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“The goods impacted are relatively wide-reaching,” he said.

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They stretch from alcohol and dairy to other subgroups including cement, hockey sticks, furniture, electronics, clothing and florals, which are “predominantly” exported from the three provinces, he said.

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Andrew Hencic, a senior economist at TD Economics, said in a note on Tuesday that the tariff’s targets, which are in response to bans on U.S. alcohol, Canadian auto tariffs and the dispute over access to the dairy industry, were chosen “where demand is going to be highly responsive to the new duties.”

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Yu said he expects B.C.’s wine industry to take a hit, as well as the province’s wood fibre and plywood sectors, but the overall impact on exports will be more muted compared with central Canada since B.C. only sends about 50 per cent of its international goods south of the border, while Ontario and Quebec send about 70 per cent of exports to the U.S.

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China, South Korea, Japan and Asia in general are larger trading partners for B.C. compared with other provinces, which Yu said will help shield it from some of the tariffs, while its service trade in the form of, say, tourism will also act as something of a shield, Yu said.

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In Ontario, some industries that could be exposed include electronics manufacturers and companies that make components for electrical equipment.

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Of all the provinces, Alberta sends the largest share of its exports — 85 per cent and mostly energy — to the U.S., but energy was exempt from the latest tariff threat. Potash and critical minerals were exempt, too.

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Yu estimates the new tariffs could affect $31-billion worth of goods.

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Tariffs won’t be stacked on top of others affecting steel and aluminum, but targeted goods won’t be protected by the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, which has so far allowed Canadian exports to have among the lowest tariff rates.

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Canada’s average U.S. tariff rate could jump to about six per cent from five per cent, but that would still be among the lowest globally, though “highly damaging at an industry level,” Yu said.

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He said more Canadian companies could be forced to move their production stateside to keep their businesses viable if the tariffs come to pass.

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“If it does go forward, it does cut off the U.S. as an export market for some products that are domestically produced, and it will also mean that for some of these producers, they’ll need to look at different ways to stay in that U.S. market, either by shifting their production over or opening up new manufacturing plants there,” he said.