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Poland’s central bank refrained from cutting interest rates for another month as policymakers’ rhetoric turned more hawkish despite a softer-than-expected inflation print in December.
Author of the article:
Bloomberg News
Agnieszka Barteczko
Published Jan 16, 2025 • 1 minute read
![7}nr{]d7}}mt5nvmapp4mb0n_media_dl_1.png](https://smartcdn.gprod.postmedia.digital/financialpost/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/poland-keeps-benchmark-rate-on-hold-central-bank-holds-rate.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=288&h=216&sig=4xB8parycq-zH8HSFc_S6Q)
(Bloomberg) — Poland’s central bank refrained from cutting interest rates for another month as policymakers’ rhetoric turned more hawkish despite a softer-than-expected inflation print in December.
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The Monetary Policy Council kept its benchmark at 5.75% on Thursday — the level where it’s been since late 2023 — in line with the forecasts of all 32 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Inflation — at 4.7% in December — has remained above the central bank’s tolerance range for six months and policymakers are concerned it will stay elevated in the quarters ahead.
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National Bank of Poland Governor Adam Glapinski surprised investors in December when he said that rate cuts were probably off the table until 2026. The central bank’s communiqué following its January meeting appeared to extend his hawkish tilt, according to economists at ING Bank Slaski SA, Credit Agricole SA and Bank Millennium SA.
In its statement, the MPC said that in the coming quarters “inflation will remain markedly above the NBP inflation target, driven by the effects of the already introduced increases in energy prices, as well as rises in excise duties and administered services prices.”
It also said that core inflation will “probably also continue to be elevated,” saying that the expiry of energy price caps in the second half of 2025 “may contribute to extending the period of inflation staying above the target.”
The MPC’s statement “sounds more hawkish than in December,” ING economists led by Rafal Benecki said. “We have the impression that the way the central bank perceives reality has changed.”
The zloty showed no immediate reaction to the rate announcement and the statement, trading 0.1% weaker against the euro on Thursday. Investor focus is turning to Glapinski’s news conference, scheduled for 3 p.m. in Warsaw on Friday, to see if and how his views evolved in the past month.
—With assistance from Barbara Sladkowska.
(Updates with details from central bank statement from the first paragraph)
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