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Regaining the top seed in the Eastern Conference will be a difficult task for the Detroit Pistons. They face new adversaries that have retooled or gotten stronger, including the Miami Heat, Indiana Pacers, Philadelphia 76ers, and New York Knicks, among others. More than that, Coach J.B. Bickerstaff also has to fix woes that they saw in their own ranks. Cade Cunningham is primed for a big revenge run, but their success depends on how they perform as a group. A key contributor to that production is Jalen Duren.
How will he perform in the upcoming 2026-27 NBA season? Can he retain his status as a member of the All-NBA Third Team? Let's break it down.
Breaking Down Jalen Duren's 2026-27 Stat Projections With The Pistons
The biggest worry about Jalen Duren heading into the new season is his inability to agree to a contract with the Pistons. The Pistons offered him a five-year contract worth $190 million. The catch? Well, Duren is eligible for an extension that can go up to $287 million. His camp wants to settle for at least $200 million. With less than 40 days remaining before the season commences, no deal has been struck yet.
So, Duren will have to prove he's worth more than that and should be with Cade Cunningham for the foreseeable future. Looking into his Basketball Reference Per 36 Minutes numbers, he is very capable of being productive for the Pistons. This all considering that Coach J.B. Bickerstaff gives him the same 28.2 minutes per game that he was allocated last season.
| PTS | FGA | FG% | 3P% | FT% | AST | TRB | STL | BLK | TOV |
| 21.7 | 12.9 | 0.657 | 0.360 | 0.742 | 3.0 | 13.7 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 2.3 |
When crunched to get a per-game average projection, it seems like Duren will do well. (Notes: the solid dotted line is the average for every center in the 2025-26 NBA season, the gray dotted line is the player's career average, and the red dotted line is the projection for the 2026-27 NBA season)
Defensively, Duren will still be a sufficient anchor that the Pistons can rely on. He is projected to outperform the average center on these defensive metrics. In fact, the Pistons will likely see him tie his career-high average with 0.8 steals. It is also increasingly likely that he surpasses his projected 10.7-rebound average and even ties his career-high 11-rebound season back in 2023-24. Moreover, Duren is expected to be on par with the majority of centers when it comes to his average of 0.9 blocks.
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Duren is also projected to commit no more than 1.8 turnovers per game, which means the Pistons can run a smooth offense through him and Cunningham. It was also a worry that he couldn't finish at the charity stripe, but those woes may start to dissipate once the 2026-27 NBA season starts. See, the big man had a horrid 67.4% free throw percentage during the Pistons' 2025-26 NBA Playoffs run. It helps fans to see that projections have him making 74.2% of his free-throw attempts.
Brightest Spots for Duren and the Pistons
Efficiency is the name of the game for traditional NBA centers. Because they can't stretch the floor or be seen as a scoring threat from outside the paint, their skills have to show up in other ways. This is why making every shot that Coach J.B. Bickerstaff entrusts Jalen Duren with is important. Actually, this will not be a problem for the Pistons at all when looking further into the big man's projections.
Duren knocking down 65.7% of his shots from the field makes him an insanely unstoppable force that the Pistons can use against the rest of the league. The usual solution would be to employ some sort of Hack-A-Shaq scheme to keep him from popping off. Even then, opposing coaches may want to reconsider because he is projected to, once again, make 74.2% of his free throws. The fact that he is also expected to take six free throws (5.915) per game means that strategy needs to be thrown away completely.
The most peculiar part of the Basketball Reference data has to be the three-point percentage that Duren will bear for the 2026-27 season. An uptick from a flat 0% all the way to 36% is projected to happen. See, the All-Star center has not taken a single shot from outside the arc during the Pistons' 2024-25 to 2025-26 NBA regular season campaigns. In fact, his last attempt from three-point range was on April 5, 2024, when the Pistons lost 108-90 to the Memphis Grizzlies. To make matters weirder, he has not knocked down a single three-pointer in his career.
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Fun fact: the Pistons have a 16.7% win percentage when Duren attempts a three-pointer. Cunningham and Co. have lost five out of the six games where the big man hoped to evolve into a Ryan Anderson or Karl-Anthony Towns-figure. They won only once while he took a shot downtown: against the Portland Trail Blazers on February 8, 2024. Even then, it was a 128-122 overtime victory that required Cunningham, Duren, and Jaden Ivey to combine for 76 points. So, it will be quite a sight to see the Pistons' big man shoot three-pointers with a clip that's way above most centers.
Woes for Duren's 2026-27 NBA Projections
At first glance, there is nothing wrong or peculiar when it comes to Duren's projections. However, Pistons fans need to factor in that he needs to surpass his level of production for Cade Cunningham and Co. to become contenders in the Eastern Conference. This does not seem to be the case for the upcoming season. In fact, his limited shot diet might end up being the problem and hurdle in why they have such a tough ceiling to break.
Duren is projected to take only 10.1 field goal attempts for the upcoming season. This is likely due to the acquisition of another rim-runner, John Collins. Adding shooters like Isaiah Joe, Taurean Prince, and Gary Harris also means fewer shots for the big man. As a result, his projected average will go down to 17 points per game. This is not enough for someone who wants to be the clear second star on an Eastern Conference contender. It might not even be enough to get him back to All-NBA Third-Team contention.
The Pistons need someone to supplement Cunningham, and Duren is the clear answer. Whether he's worth $200 million in help remains to be seen.
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