Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx Prediction and Betting Tips for Sept. 21 | Game 1 of 2025 WNBA Semifinals

The 2025 WNBA semifinals begin on Sunday, with Game 1 of the series between the Phoenix Mercury and Minnesota Lynx. The Mercury are feeling great after eliminating the reigning champions, while the Lynx had the best record in the league during the regular season.

Phoenix outlasted the New York Liberty in Game 3 of their first-round matchup to book their ticket to the next round. Minnesota, on the other hand, swept the Golden State Valkyries in two games, though Game 2 was a come-from-behind win for the Lynx.

Fans can watch Game 1 of the Mercury-Lynx series on ESPN. It's also available via live stream on the ESPN app, which is a paid subscription platform. Tipoff is scheduled for 5:00 p.m. EST.

Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx Preview, Prediction and Betting Tips

Moneyline: Mercury (+260) vs. Lynx (-325)

Spread: Mercury +7 (-108) vs. Lynx -7 (-112)

Total (O/U): U158.5 (-105), O158.5 (-112)

Note: The odds could change before tipoff.

Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx Preview

The Minnesota Lynx won the regular season series against the Phoenix Mercury, 3-1. The average winning margin for the three wins is 13.0 points, while Mercury's lone victory had a score of 79-71.

It will also be the battle between WNBA MVP finalists Napheesa Collier and Alyssa Thomas. Both stars are looking to lead their respective teams back to the WNBA Finals. Collier and the Lynx came up short last season, while Thomas is in her first season in Phoenix.

Thomas led the Connecticut Sun to the WNBA Finals in 2022, while the Mercury's last appearance was in 2021.

Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx Predicted Starting Lineups

Mercury

G - Kahleah Copper | G - Monique Akoa-Makani | F - Satou Sabally | F - Alyssa Thomas | C - Natasha Mack

Lynx

G - Courtney Williams | G - Kayla McBride | F - Bridget Carleton | F - Napheesa Collier | C - Alanna Smith

Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx Betting Tips

Alyssa Thomas has an over/under of 32.5 points+rebounds+assists via FanDuel. Thomas is favored to go OVER (-125) in Game 1 against the Lynx. She is coming off a triple-double, so bet on her to pull off another or at least go OVER 32.5 points+rebounds+assists.

Napheesa Collier is favored to go OVER 21.5 points in Game 1 versus the Mercury. Collier is averaging 22.0 points in this year's playoffs, so bet on the Lynx superstar to score at least 22 points.

Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx Prediction

The Lynx are favored to beat the Mercury at home in the Target Center in Game 1 of the 2025 WNBA semifinals. The prediction is a win for Minnesota, with the Mercury covering the +7 spread and the total going over 158.5 points.

Edited by Juan Paolo David