Phillies' Kyle Schwarber predicted to accomplish major HR feat for first time in MLB career

Jun 20, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber (12) hits a home run against the New York Mets in the third inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

During the 2025-2026 MLB offseason, the Philadelphia Phillies fanbase had one major worry: the potential of losing Kyle Schwarber. The Baltimore Orioles, Cincinnati Reds, and Pittsburgh Pirates all made a run at Schwarber. But he came back to Philadelphia.

The Phillies are sure lucky he did. Schwarber has been elite this season, posting some incredible numbers, including 30 homers by July and a near-MLB Home Run Derby win in Philadelphia.

Speaking of home runs, recently ESPN experts shared a prediction for Schwarber that is fairly realistic, and if it happened, would make some personal history for the Phillies slugger. That feat? Ending the season with the most HRs in baseball.

Kyle Schwarber predicted to win HR crown for first time in career

"Who will be the 2026 MLB home run leader? Kyle Schwarber: 12 votes. Pete Crow-Armstrong: 3," ESPN shared.

Schwarber is predicted by the majority of ESPN analysts, experts, and insiders to lead all of MLB in home runs by the end of the season.

Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Chicago Cubs was the only other hitter to receive votes, as he's at 40 homers compared to Schwarber's 43 after a clutch HR against the Atlanta Braves to help secure a 2-2 series split in Philadelphia.

Schwarber has been quiet for a lot of the summer, struggling to hit homers since July began, possibly thanks in part to a back injury. But after his clutch homer and recent strong production, that no longer feels like an issue.

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So long as Crow-Armstrong doesn't go on an absurd tear to the end of the season, and Schwarber doesn't run ice-cold for a while, he should be able to win the MLB HR crown in 2026.

If he does, it would be the first time he's ever accomplished the feat. Back in 2022, he led all National League hitters with 46 home runs, and in 2025 he led all NL hitters in homers again, this time with 56.

But both times he didn't lead all of baseball in home runs. This year, however, it might finally change. He's got a decent lead over PCA, as his 43 homers lead all of MLB by three home runs.

ESPN's panel is predicting the Phillies slugger will wind up as the MLB leader in homers, which would give the beloved slugger his first-ever MLB HR title despite clobbering many homers the last five seasons.

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