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(Bloomberg) — Lea la nota en español
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Peru’s economic growth was significantly weaker than expected in May, dragged down by a drop in fishing and manufacturing.
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The economic activity index, a proxy for gross domestic product, expanded 1.8% in May from a year earlier, according to national statistics institute INEI. That’s nearly two percentage points down from April’s 3.7% pace and far below the 3.1% median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The economy shrank 1.11% from the previous month.
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Fishing and manufacture contracted 73.1% and 10.7%, respectively. Unusually high ocean waves driven by stronger winds have been disrupting the fishing sector in the past months, while a ban on anchovy fishing remains in place since May due to warming of the Pacific waters off the country’s coast that makes stocks more vulnerable.
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In the first five months of 2026, the economy expanded 3.2%. Before Wednesday’s report, the central bank had forecast 3.4% growth for 2026.
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The bank raised its annual growth forecast last month, citing stronger private investment, which is expected to help offset the drag from the El Niño weather phenomenon.
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What Bloomberg Economics Says
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“Underlying domestic demand continued to expand in Peru while temporary supply-side disruptions tempered activity growth in May. The data remain consistent with an economy running above potential and trending up over the rest of 2026. High copper prices and strong external demand still support the outlook, with an added boost further out from expectations of more market-friendly policies from incoming President Keiko Fujimori.”
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— Felipe Hernandez, Latin America economist
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— Click here for full report
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The bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% for a 10th straight meeting this month. The bank expects that inflation will slow toward its 1%-3% target range as temporary price pressures cool, particularly in food and energy.
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Separately, labor market data for the capital city, Lima, showed that the unemployment rate fell to 4.9% in June, down from May’s reading of 5%, which had been the lowest print in the data series.
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Business confidence improved in June after investor-friendly candidate Keiko Fujimori won the nation’s presidential election. The new government takes office July 28.
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—With assistance from Robert Jameson.
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(Updates to add Bloomberg Economics comment after fifth, Lima unemployment in seventh paragraph)
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English (US)