Patriots vs. Seahawks prediction: Super Bowl 2026 pick against the spread, odds, bets

Sports betting writer Dylan Svoboda joins The Post’s Bettor’s Guide for his second season.

The Big Game is here. 

While nobody expected either team to make it this far, this Super Bowl is looking like one of the bigger mismatches in recent years. 

The Patriots’ road to the Super Bowl has been as underwhelming as it gets. 

After beating the Chargers and Texans, who weren’t quite seen as Super Bowl contenders heading into the postseason, New England got the Bo Nix-less Broncos, and needed a ton of luck to get by them. 

Despite a fumble recovery that handed them a drive starting at the Broncos 12-yard line, a boneheaded fourth-down decision by Sean Peyton, and a second-half blizzard, the Pats only beat Jarrett Stidham and Co. by a score. 

The Seahawks, on the other hand, have looked unbeatable. 

After throttling the injury-riddled 49ers, Seattle beat the Los Angeles Rams, the second-highest rated team in terms of DVOA this season, in impressive fashion. 

Their defense was the No. 1 rated in the league, and their special teams, led by kicker Jason Myers and kick returner Rashid Shaheed, is about as good as it gets. 

Jaxon Smith-Njigba #11 of the Seattle Seahawks reacts during the third quarter against the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship game at Lumen Field on January 25, 2026 in Seattle, Washington. Getty Images

The Seahawks’ running game held its own even without Zach Charbonnet, and they feature perhaps the top pass-catcher in the sport, Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Their biggest question lies with their quarterback, Sam Darnold. 

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He’s disappeared in big games before, but Darnold showed up when Seattle needed it most last week against the Rams, going 25-for-36 through the air for 346 yards with three touchdowns and, crucially, zero interceptions. 

The betting public is all over the Seahawks. It’s hard to disagree with them.

The play: Seahawks -4.5 (-110, Fanatics)

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) talks to media members at the Santa Clara Marriott. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Onto the total.

The Patriots have made it this far on the back of their defense, squeaking by with just enough points to get by.

Now, they’re getting perhaps the best defense in the NFL.

It might not be pretty for Drake Maye and Co.

And with the Seahawks’ conservative play style, it may be a field goal-heavy day for Jason Myers in a slog of a contest.

The play: Under 45.5 (-110, bet365)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Dylan Svoboda is a versatile writer and analyst across many sports. He’s particularly knowledgeable about the big three — MLB, the NFL and the NBA.