Party divisions persist past primary — on both sides

The California primary is (mostly) over. Even though California will keep counting ballots for a month, some dynamics are already clear.  

But some things aren’t over, even when the results are in. Here are four things that will persist.

1. California Democrats are divided

Democrats in California are not a happy political bunch these days. To the contrary, they are divided and growing disenchanted.

Recall that the last four elections for governor were a foregone conclusion among Democrats.

In both 2018 and 2022, Gavin Newsom breezed to victory in the June primary and November election. He faced no serious challenger among the Democrats. 

Prior to that, in 2010 and 2014, Democrat Jerry Brown also was the overwhelming choice of Democrats, including winning over 84% of Democrat voters in the 2010 Democrat-only primary.

Thus, it has been 20 years since the Democrats had a true contest as to who they want for governor. This cycle, it was a revolving door of candidates who once claimed the lead, including Katie Porter and Eric Swalwell –– both of whose careers are likely over.

Tuesday’s results demonstrated that no single candidate was ever the front-runner, let alone a forgone conclusion. 

2. California voters aren’t happy with the new, more radical Democrats

The Democrats are not as popular as they once were in California.  

According to pollster John McLaughlin, a “majority of voters, 56%, said California is on the wrong track.”  That cannot be surprising, given the mounting problems of crime, homelessness, affordability, insurance rates, and on and on.

The Democrats’ leading politicians are not favored either.

Gavin Newsom, who is more intent on fighting President Donald Trump than on fixing crime or homelessness in California, finds his approval ratings underwater.  

Indeed, per McLaughlin, “49% of all voters approve of the job Gavin Newsom is doing, while 50% disapprove of the job he’s done, including 22% among Democrats.”

Likewise, nearly two-thirds of all voters disapproved of Karen Bass, the mayor of the second largest city in the US, in the week before the primary. 

Given the weak primary results for Bacerra and Steyer the primary demonstrates that Democrats are without a popular leader.

3. California’s & LA’s failures will be a national story all the way to the midterms 

Over a year ago, I wrote that the mayors of Los Angeles, New York and Chicago would define the Democrat Party in 2026. So far, New York’s far-left Zohran Mamdani and LA’s far-left Bass have been front and center in politics –– for all the wrong reasons.

Bass could only muster one-third of the primary vote in LA. At this point, she is only outpacing the newcomer Spencer Pratt by 4 percentage points.

Bass also didn’t come close to 50%. That means there will be a runoff. It also means the problems of LA will remain front and center in American politics all the way to November.

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The battle for governor between Steve Hilton and Xavier Becerra (if that vote holds up) also means that California’s problems will remain on the front page of national news.

The political fight over poor results will continue to result in poor ratings for the Democrat Party and should undermine Democrats’ efforts to take the House of Representatives.

4. California Republicans are still fighting amongst themselves

Once again, the California Republicans engaged in an ugly battle to determine their choice for governor.

The candidates, Hilton and Bianco, could not resist taking shots at each other.  As the primary approached, despite no chance for Bianco to place in the top two, he resisted overtures to step aside to ensure Hilton would make it through.

Fights among Bianco and Hilton supporters were often bitter. And the state party struggled to build consensus on whom to support, resulting in no party endorsement.

Republicans must find a way to work together to get Voter ID passed in November, to defeat the billionaire tax, and to support Steve Hilton’s bid for an upset.

Still, there is hope. If either or both Pratt and Hilton win this fall, and make just a few common-sense reforms, combined with a “yes” vote on Voter ID, California may well turn the corner.

Thomas Del Beccaro is the chairman of Californians for Election Fairness.