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(Bloomberg) — Pakistan’s inflation eased last month, though policymakers remain wary that higher energy costs could reignite price pressures.
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The consumer price index rose 9.2% in July from a year earlier, according to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics on Monday. That’s slightly slower than the 9.3% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. Inflation slowed to 11.07% in June.
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The latest reading supports the State Bank of Pakistan’s decision to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 11.5% last month even as officials remain alert to renewed inflation risks. Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for Pakistan’s oil and gas imports, forced the country to buy its most expensive spot cargo since 2022, highlighting the risk of higher imported inflation.
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The central bank expects inflation to ease gradually and stabilize near the upper end of its 5%-7% target range by June 2027. Even so, it warned in last week’s monetary policy statement that the outlook remains vulnerable to risks, including volatility in global energy prices.
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Food inflation accelerated to 10.64% in July from 9.4% in June, while housing and energy costs eased 7.14% from a year earlier, bureau data showed.
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Inflation returned to single digits after three months as lower fuel prices offset a sharp increase in food costs, said Muhammad Awais Ashraf, research director at AKD Securities. “We expect inflation to moderate further as prices of perishable food items are likely to normalize.”
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