Padres' starting rotation is major issue in pursuit of Dodgers for NL West title

The San Diego Padres, even though the roster isn't exactly in a perfect state, should still be serious contenders for the postseason, the NL West, and potentially even the World Series. Beating the Los Angeles Dodgers is a possibility for this team.

While there is a lot to like about this Padres team, with the bullpen and the lineup being in great spots, there is one area that is a major question mark entering the season: the starting rotation.

ESPN's Bradford Doolittle identified the Padres rotation, and specifically the 1.6 bWAR production of the starters other than Nick Pivetta last season, as the main question the Padres need to answer this season with the rest of their rotation.

Padres have to answer rotation issue to hang with Dodgers

"Pivotal number: 1.6. With Joe Musgrave and Griffin Canning starting off on the IL, this figure represents the combined 2026 bWAR total of the four members of the Padres' Opening Day rotation not named Nick Pivetta," Doolittle writes.

Other than Pivetta, the Padres' rotation to begin the season will consist of Michael King, Randy Vasquez, German Marquez, and Walker Buehlar.

All of those pitchers have shown upside in their careers, but last season, they each had their struggles or areas of concern.

King was good for most of the year, but he made just 15 starts and recorded 1.5 bWAR. Vasquez had a 3.85 ERA in 26 starts (28 games) with 23 bWAR. Those were two solid years, but left room for improvement. The other two starters are big question marks.

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Marquez, in 26 starts for the Colorado Rockies, had a 6.70 ERA with -1.1 bWAR. Buehler, in 24 starts and 26 games between the Philadelphia Phillies and Boston Red Sox, posted 0.0 bWAR, with 0.9 coming with the Phillies and -0.8 with Boston.

While there might be some upside with all of these pitchers, including Buehler and Marquez, both former All-Stars, the Padres' rotation is by far the biggest question that is holding this team back from being a realistic threat to the Dodgers in the NL West.

If the rotation in San Diego can have a good year, and Musgrave and Canning can help once they return as well, the Padres might be in a good spot for a deep postseason run.

Such a year is far from a guarantee, however, as the current rotation features no pitcher without major question marks heading into the year.

Pivetta, King, Vasquez, Marquez, Buehler, Canning, and Musgrave have potential, but could have bad years in 2026, and it would not be a surprise whatsoever.

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