Padres' Dylan Cease, Michael King receive $100 million difference in contract projection

The San Diego Padres are heading into a fascinating offseason. With Mike Shildt's surprise retirement and the lack of prospect depth due to AJ Preller's trades, the Padres need to be smart with their free agent targets this winter.

San Diego will need to decide whether to retain some key players, with starting pitchers Michael King and Dylan Cease being two of the biggest to address.

But according to a recent contract projection for ESPN's Kiley McDaniel, King and Cease received vastly different projections, nearly $100 million apart.

A pair of Padres starters receives $100 million difference in contract projection

McDaniel projects that Cease, coming off a shaky season, could land a five-year, $145 million contract. In comparison, King is projected to land a three-year, $57 million contract.

It's a massive difference, but considering King's injury history in 2025, which included missing roughly half the regular season, there's cause for concern regarding King's long-term viability.

Instead of signing a huge deal like Cease could, who's been healthy, King could wind up signing a short-term deal with an opt-out after one year to try and have a strong season to reset his free agent market.

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A team could sign King to a one-year rental, with both hoping he has a bounce-back season in 2026. If he proves he can start for an entire season and pitch at a high level, then King's contract could get much closer to Cease's $145 million projection.

Both are 30 years old, and both have had their ups and downs in recent years. The big difference is that Cease has been healthy. A team won't spend a huge sum of money on a pitcher who's struggled to stay healthy.

Cease is likely to land a much bigger deal, and as McDaniel of ESPN projects, it could be nearly $100 million more than his fellow Padres pitcher hitting free agency after 2025.

The Padres re-signing King on a prove-it deal seems a lot more likely than re-signing Cease. But Preller has a knack for stunning moves, and nothing can be taken off the table until everything is final.

More Padres News:

• Padres' Mason Miller could be converting to starting role in 2026
• Padres' Mike Shildt announces retirement following 2025 season
• Padres ace Dylan Cease gets $174 million contract update from MLB insider ahead of free agency
• Padres star Yu Darvish out for 2026 after elbow repair and internal brace
• Padres All-Star closer Robert Suarez makes huge $16 million decision
• Padres' Fernando Tatis Jr. wins second Gold Glove award