Pacers vs. Bucks prediction: NBA odds, picks, best bets for Game 3

Betting on the NBA playoffs often requires trust and belief in something that has not often happened.

For Giannis Antetokounmpo, it has not occurred in three years. The NBA champion and two-time MVP has lost seven straight playoff games.

The Milwaukee Bucks not only are expected to win, but they are five-point home favorites over the Indiana Pacers in Game 3 on Friday.

Indy essentially has dominated the series so far, winning and covering both home games.

The Pacers won the opener in blowout fashion and then hung on in Game 2 after Milwaukee cut a 15-point deficit in the fourth quarter to just two points with a 13-0 run.

In that game, All-Star guard Damian Lillard returned from a month-long absence and showed understandable rust in his 37 minutes. I expect a much sharper performance Friday.

Pacers vs. Bucks prediction for Game 3

I expect the Bucks to play much better and make this a series. That is quite the leap of faith considering how the first two games have unfolded. But betting on bounce-back performances usually is the secret to postseason betting success.

The rationale is that Milwaukee’s season is on the line, while the Pacers figure to possess a more comfortable and content mindset with a 2-0 series lead.

That is why we so rarely see sweeps.

Tyrese Haliburton has led a dominant Pacers squad over the Bucks through two games. NBAE via Getty Images

The Bucks figure to be desperate and inspired by the home crowd.

That energy and intensity should generate more rebounds, stronger defense and even more foul shots.

The betting market understands that and has a form of a “tax” with a higher point spread than it would if the series were tied 1-1.

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I am 38-28-1 against the spread (ATS) in this Post sports section, and I am backing the Bucks for my next pick.

The situation favors them significantly and I believe that outweighs the point-spread tax.

Antetokounmpo should end his playoff drought in convincing fashion.

PICK: Bucks -5 (-110, Bet365)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who currently serves as the Chief Content Officer for Only Players, a sports betting media company. Doug has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.