Pacers preseason championship odds: Where Indiana would rank among most unlikely champions in NBA, sports history

Cinderella stories are generally not part of the equation in the NBA. The league has long been dominated by superstars, and just one on a roster often isn't enough to lift the Larry O'Brien Trophy. 

Even at the college level, where some NCAA Tournaments have been defined by iconic Cinderella runs, few such runs resulted in a championship. The road to a title is a gauntlet at any level, designed to weed out the flawed along the way.

The Pacers may have flaws, but they keep finding a way. Underestimated against the Cavaliers, Knicks and even the Bucks in some eyes, Indiana not only won its first Eastern Conference title in 25 years but now pushed the 68-win Thunder all the way to a Game 7 in the NBA Finals.

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If the Pacers manage to win Game 7 on the road, they will rank among the most unlikely champions in the history of the NBA — and perhaps professional sports.

Here's a look at the Pacers' preseason title odds and how they compare to the most unlikely champions in NBA history.

What were the Pacers preseason NBA championship odds?

The Pacers entered the season with +6600 odds to win the NBA championship, according to Basketball-Reference. Indiana was tied with the Kings for the 17th-best odds. 

Teams with better preseason title odds than the Pacers included the Pelicans (21-61), 76ers (24-58) and Suns (36-46). 

The Thunder, on the other hand, entered the season with the second-best odds at +675, trailing only the reigning champion Celtics. Oklahoma City earned the No. 1 seed in the West in 2023-24 and filled two holes by adding both Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso in the offseason.

Here's a closer look at where the Pacers would rank among the NBA's most unlikely champions.

MORE: Why Thunder should — and shouldn't — be worried after Game 6 blowout

Most unlikely champions in NBA history

With data only going back to the 1984-85 season, the NBA champions with the most distant preseason odds from the last 40 seasons are below: 

With the Celtics and Lakers dominating the NBA's early decades, there weren't too many unlikely title runs before the last four decades, but there are some exceptions. The biggest might be the 1977-78 Washington Bullets, who hold the record for fewest wins by an NBA champion at 44-38 after winning 48 the previous season. 

With that being said, the Pacers would easily be the NBA's most unlikely champion since at least 1985 at +6600. The 2014-15 Warriors currently hold the record from the last 40 years at +2800. While that season is now remembered for the birth of Golden State's dynasty, the Warriors lost in the first round a season earlier and were considered to be far removed from contenders such as the Cavaliers, Spurs, Thunder and Clippers after firing Mark Jackson for Steve Kerr.

By the time the playoffs arrived, the Warriors were 67-15 and ranked squarely among the favorites. 

What might make the Pacers even more unlikely than their preseason odds indicate is the fact they didn't shatter expectations in the regular season. Indiana finished 3.5 wins ahead of its preseason over/under mark but entered the playoffs as only slight favorites over the Bucks in the first round. The Pacers were underdogs against both the Cavaliers and Knicks, and they were decisive underdogs entering the NBA Finals.

To that point, the Pacers enter Game 7 having won 10 playoff games outright as an underdog during their run. Even on Sunday, Indiana is the biggest NBA Finals Game 7 underdog since 1966. 

Plenty of teams — including the 2014-15 Warriors and 2022-23 Nuggets — have entered the season as relative underdogs and erased that perception in the regular season before winning a championship. Others — including the 1994-95 Rockets — entered as a title favorite but were doubted at the start of the playoffs before winning a title. The Pacers were considerable underdogs in both October and April, and that makes their run one of the most stunning in NBA history regardless of how Game 7 ends. 

MORE: Revisiting every Game 7 in NBA Finals history

Most unlikely champions in sports history

Historically, the NBA hasn't been conducive to stories like the Pacers. Other leagues have, however.

In the wild card era, more than a few unlikely MLB teams have won the World Series. In terms of preseason expectations, the 2002 Angels, 2003 Marlins, 2017 Astros and 2023 Rangers all massively outperformed on their way to a title. The 2006 Cardinals, meanwhile, won the World Series after a disappointing 83-78 season, while the 2019 Nationals rallied to win the World Series after losing Bryce Harper and starting the year 19-31.

The 1999 Rams and 2001 Patriots both rank among the most unlikely Super Bowl champions, with Kurt Warner and Tom Brady coming out of nowhere to lead their respective teams to titles, while the Giants' runs in 2007 and 2011 were both unexpected. The Bengals narrowly missed a chance to become an all-time unlikely champion in 2021, when they reached the Super Bowl despite entering the season with the 29th-best odds. Cincinnati suffered a last-minute loss to the Rams. 

In the NHL, the 2005-06 Hurricanes rank as the most unlikely champion of the 21st century based on preseason odds (+6000) fresh off a lockout-cancelled season. Only one team entered the season with more distant odds. The 2018-19 Blues, meanwhile, had an all-time surprise turnaround after sitting at the bottom of the standings in January before making a run that resulted in a Stanley Cup championship.

Leicester City's 2016 Premier League win, meanwhile, is considered one of the most improbable feats in sports history in a league that doesn't historically enjoy too much parity.