Pacers have daunting NBA award frontrunner as an X-Factor, it's not Tyrese Haliburton

When someone joins the Indiana Pacers, they always have to bear the identity of an underdog. Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam proved exactly that in their NBA Finals run before taking a gap year due to injuries. A return to form is expected, despite the cutthroat Eastern Conference picture. But it won't all be because of those two superstars. ESPN projects that Coach Rick Carlisle will be a close favorite to win the NBA Coach of the Year award.

Pacers' X-Factor is Coach Carlisle, not Haliburton, as ESPN predicts NBA COTY win

Tyrese Haliburton is typically the face of the Pacers. Rightfully so, he led them to their first NBA Finals berth and Eastern Conference trophy for the first time since 2000. However, people might be forgetting that basketball is a game of schematics and rotations that let star players shine no matter the adversity of injuries or roster-makeup disadvantages. This is where Coach Rick Carlisle comes in.

The veteran Pacers head coach does not have the prettiest roster heading into the 2026-27 NBA season. Heck, he even lost key contributors, Bennedict Mathurin and Isaiah Jackson, at the trade deadline. But this is not the first time that he defied odds en route to winning a Larry O'Brien trophy. Those wits and his schematic IQ are precisely why ESPN projects him to win the 2026-27 NBA COTY.

Typically, this is one of the hardest NBA awards races to predict. Much of it is because Xs and Os, along with rotations, are volatile game to game. Each coach has to lead their staff in crafting new ways to beat the next opponents through extensive scouting report adjustments while maintaining a monolithic team identity on both sides of the floor. Coach Carlisle is good at this, and the ESPN Summer Forecast agrees.

"Carlisle navigated a nightmare season for the Pacers last year without star Tyrese Haliburton, and as a bevy of injuries hit the team from day one, leaving it without much of a chance to compete. If the Pacers rediscover their championship form without much of a hitch this year, Carlisle will be a big reason why," they wrote.

True enough, when the Pacers aren't tanking because Haliburton is out, they pop off on the screen and stat sheet. Back in 2024-25, Coach Carlisle led this team to an astounding 116.5 offensive rating, which ranked ninth in the league. Their defensive rating also came in at 114.3. Both of which were their primary weapons to reach fourth in the Eastern Conference standings and claw their way up to the NBA Finals.

More technically, the Pacers, if they return to form with Haliburton, Siakam, and Coach Carlisle, will be lethal on offense despite making no major additions beyond Ivica Zubac. How so? Just look at their four offensive factors after playing at a 99.9 pace in the 2024-25 season.

Notably, the Pacers' offensive rebound percentage is also likely to skyrocket due to the additions of Zubac (3.9 ORB Per 36), Kelly Oubre Jr. (1.4 ORB Per 36), and Larry Nance Jr (2.2 ORB Per 36). Collectively, these guys are projected to bring in a Per 36 projection total of 7.5 offensive rebounds on a nightly basis. Those more than make up for the production lost due to the departures of Jackson and Mathurin. Moreover, it will increase their ORB% and offensive rating compared to the rest of the league.

Coach Carlisle knows the Pacers' identity is built on a fast-paced offense and beating teams in the clutch. Everyone on the squad can run miles and circles against the rest of the league. If he wins NBA COTY over guys who just made big free agency splashes in the offseason like Johnson, Hardy, Finch, and Nurse, it will all boil down to his technical know-how. He did it once while beating a supposedly stacked Miami Heat squad in 2012 alongside a blood-hungry Dirk Nowitzki. Who's to say he won't do it again with Haliburton leading his offense?

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