Orioles vs Yankees: Game 1 prediction, odds, injuries, and picks - June 20, 2025

Two-time Eiji Sawamura Awardee and three-time Central League MVP Tomoyuki Sugano would face a daunting task as his Orioles take on Max Fried's Yankees in the opening game of their three-game series in the Bronx.

What many pundits projected to be a disastrous campaign for the former NPB superstar has so far been put to rest as Sugano has proven his worth in MLB. During his most recent start against the Bombers on April 28, he pitched five innings of immaculate ball having given up no hits with a walk and hit by pitch issued, eight strikeouts and a massive win.

Orioles vs. Yankees recent form and records

The O's are currently in the cellar of the AL East with a 32-42 record. An atrocious offense and spotty pitching have prevented the squad from duking it out with the juggernauts of the division as the other four squads all currently have winning percentages greater than .500.

The Bombers, meanwhile, ended their three-game skid against the Angels with a win to close out the series, Thursday afternoon. They currently hold a 43-31 record and are still on top of the division. However, the Rays have closed in on them due to their hiccup, with the latter being just 2.5 games behind in the standings.

Orioles vs. Yankees odds

Money Line: BAL (+231), NYY (-256)

Run Spread: BAL -2.5 (-142), NYY -2.5 (+115)

Total Runs: O 9.5 (+105), U 9.5 (-125)

Orioles vs. Yankees injuries

BAL injury report

• Ryan Mountcastle (1B): 10-day IL (hamstring)
• Cody Poteet (RP): 60-day IL (shoulder)
• Grayson Rodriguez (SP): 60-day IL (lat, elbow)
• Tyler O'Neill (RF): 10-day IL (shoulder)
• Kyle Bradish (SP): 60-day IL (shoulder)
• Jorge Mateo (SS): 10-day IL (elbow)
• Tyler Wells (SP): 60-day IL (elbow)
• Cade Povich (SP): 15-day IL (hip)

NYY injury report

• Luke Weaver (RP): 15-day IL (hamstring)
• Gerrit Cole (SP): 60-day IL (elbow)
• Oswaldo Cabrera (3B): 10-day IL (ankle)
• Marcus Stroman (SP): 15-day IL (knee)
• J.T. Brubaker (SP): 60-day IL (ribs)
• Luis Gil (SP): 60-day IL (lat)
• Jake Cousins (RP): 60-day IL (forearm)

Orioles vs. Rays projected lineup

BAL projected lineup

• Jackson Holliday (2B)
• Adley Rutschman (C)
• Gunnar Henderson (SS)
• Ramon Laureano (LF)
• Ryan O'Hearn (DH)
• Jordan Westburg (3B)
• Colton Cowser (CF)
• Coby Mayo (1B)
• Dylan Carlson (RF)
• Tomoyuki Sugano (SP, 5-4 | 3.38 ERA | 46 K)

NYY projected lineup

• Trent Grisham (CF)
• Aaron Judge (RF)
• Cody Bellinger (LF)
• Paul Goldschmidt (1B)
• Giancarlo Stanton (DH)
• Jazz Chisholm Jr. (3B)
• Anthony Volpe (SS)
• Austin Wells (C)
• D.J. LeMahieu (2B)
• Max Fried (SP, 9-2 | 1.89 ERA | 90 K)

Orioles vs. Yankees picks and game prediction

Given the talent disparity, the scales are heavily-tilted in favor of the Yankees. Max Fried will carry his MLB-best nine-win tally against an ailing Orioles offense. However, the game should be close as Baltimore starter Tomoyuki Sugano has already proven that he can limit the firepower that the AL East giants possess.

Run Line: BAL +2.5 (-142)

Total Runs: U 9.5 (-125)

Prediction: NYY wins, 4-3

Edited by Daniel Santiago