Orban Touts Anti-Ukraine Survey to Boost His Flagging Campaign

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(Bloomberg) — Prime Minister Viktor Orban hailed the result of a government survey that showed Hungarians overwhelming against Ukraine’s European Union accession, and which critics derided as propaganda aimed at reversing his fading popularity.

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Orban said 95% of Hungarians backed his opposition to Ukraine joining the EU in the government’s “national consultation.” The result followed a months-long information campaign vilifying President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, including on billboards put up across Hungary.

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“I came with a strong mandate here, my voice has grown more masculine,” Orban told reporters in Brussels ahead of a leaders’ summit on Thursday, where he said he would block progress on Ukraine’s EU accession process.

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Orban, who has ruled Hungary since 2010, has sought to use the Ukraine issue to shift the conversation away from a cost-of-living crisis and allegations of widespread corruption among the ruling elite, though with little evidence that it’s working.

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The premier is on the back foot after a surge in support for an upstart opposition party led by former regime insider Peter Magyar. Tisza has opened a 15-point lead over Orban’s Fidesz in a Median poll published on June 18, up from nine points in March. The next parliamentary election is likely to take place in April next year.

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Although national consultations are non-binding, Orban has long resorted to mail-in questionnaires as a political tool that invariably produce results in line with his policies. Previous ones have been held on topics from migration to LGBTQ rights.

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Credibility Issue

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Critics have cast doubt on their credibility. People could vote online by providing just a name, age and an email address, potentially allowing for multiple votes by the same person. The government has responded that online votes accounted for a fraction of the more than 2 million total votes — a claim that couldn’t be independently verified.

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The result differed from a representative Median poll in March, which showed 56% of Hungarians were opposed to Ukraine’s eventual EU accession. Tisza conducted its own survey earlier this year, where a narrow majority were in favor of Ukraine’s bid. Magyar pledged to eventually hold a binding referendum on the issue if he’s elected.

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Orban has resorted to Ukraine to win votes in the past. In 2022, just two months after Russia’s invasion of Hungary’s eastern neighbor, the nationalist premier crushed a loose alliance of opposition parties to win a fifth term by promising to keep Hungary from potentially being dragged into the war.

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Now, with Hungary on the brink of another recession, Orban is returning to the issue. He’s argued that Ukraine’s accession would ruin Hungary’s economically and pose a security risk to the EU, which invited Ukraine to start accession talks in late 2023.

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The nationalist premier has largely aligned Hungary with Russia, urging EU and NATO allies to cut off aid to Kyiv and to end Western sanctions against Russia. In the meantime, Orban has sealed several energy deals with Moscow in the past three years.

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—With assistance from Piotr Skolimowski.

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