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(Bloomberg) — OPEC+ expects to pause oil-production quota hikes after a final increase in September as the group continues to evaluate the fast-changing supply impact of the Iran war, two delegates said.
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The producer group is currently planning to ratify an agreement to hike its September quota by 188,000 barrels a day when it meets virtually on Aug. 2, the delegates said, asking not to be identified because they’re not authorized to speak to the media. That will complete a current tier of increases, and there are no plans for further hikes this year.
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While this is the current plan, it could change depending on circumstances, one of the delegates said.
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The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has for months been slowly boosting the amount of oil its members are allowed to pump, and already set a roadmap back in May for the increases to continue through September. In practice, the war has rendered the hikes symbolic because the group’s key Middle East members have been forced to cut swaths of output and exports.
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Oil prices have been highly volatile during the stop-start conflict. Brent futures surged above $100 a barrel last week but have since slumped back below $90 after a pause in fighting between the US and Iran.
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Tehran has been attacking oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz during the war, creating uncertain output losses that complicate the OPEC+’s decisions over supply and add to oil price volatilty.
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Saudi Arabia’s energy ministry didn’t immediately respond to a message seeking comment. A call to OPEC wasn’t answered.
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(Updates with context on OPEC+ strategy this year in third paragraph.)
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