OPEC Flips Third-Quarter Oil Market View to Surplus on US Growth

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(Bloomberg) — OPEC flipped estimates for global oil markets in the third quarter from a deficit to a surplus, as US production exceeded expectations while the group itself ramped up supplies.

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World oil output exceeded demand by 500,000 barrels a day during the period, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its latest monthly report, compared with a 400,000-barrel shortfall estimated a month ago.

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The group’s Vienna-based secretariat raised estimates for supplies outside OPEC and its allies in the period by 890,000 barrels a day, with just over half of the change driven by the US.

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The report published Wednesday also indicated that the OPEC+ alliance pumped more crude than it estimated was needed last quarter. Saudi Arabia has steered the coalition to fast-track the revival of halted supply this year in a bid to reclaim global market share.

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This month, key members showed their first signs of slowing that strategy, agreeing to pause further production increases during the first quarter of 2026. The organization cited a seasonal demand slowdown, though many analysts warn of a significant oversupply in global markets.

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Oil futures have declined about 14% this year in London to trade near $65 a barrel.

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OPEC boosted estimates for total US liquids production in the third quarter to 22.81 million barrels a day, from 22.27 million a day last month.

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The overall change to non-OPEC+ supplies in 2025 is much more modest, at just 110,000 barrels a day, as a result of downward revisions to other quarters.

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Surplus Next Year

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Heading into 2026, OPEC’s data does indicate a surplus, though on a more moderate scale than other forecasters. The alliance would need to produce 42.6 million barrels a day during the first quarter to balance global demand, less than the 43 million it pumped in October.

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Earlier on Wednesday, OPEC’s secretariat hailed a shift by its counterparts at the International Energy Agency, which acknowledged in an annual long-term report that oil demand could continue to increase for several decades.

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The IEA, which in recent years has predicted consumption will stop growing this decade, has had a “rendezvous with reality,” OPEC said.

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The eight OPEC+ members currently engaged in supply adjustments, and the full 22-nation coalition, will hold meetings to review policy on Nov. 30.

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