.jpg)
1 hour ago
4
Article content
(Bloomberg) — The breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire threatens to leave Brent crude hovering around the $100-a-barrel mark well past July and into the end of the year, according to Rapidan Energy Group’s increased forecast.
THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLY
Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.
- Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman, and others.
- Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.
- Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.
- National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.
- Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.
SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES
Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.
- Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman and others.
- Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.
- Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.
- National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.
- Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.
REGISTER / SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLES
Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.
- Access articles from across Canada with one account.
- Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.
- Enjoy additional articles per month.
- Get email updates from your favourite authors.
THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK.
Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.
- Access articles from across Canada with one account
- Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments
- Enjoy additional articles per month
- Get email updates from your favourite authors
Sign In or Create an Account
or
Article content
The consulting firm raised its fourth-quarter estimates on the oil benchmark to nearly $100 a barrel, up from $85, citing prolonged disruptions of trade through the Strait of Hormuz. The global benchmark could climb into the mid-$100 range in the coming months if lingering optimism over a peace agreement fades and the market starts to price in tightening supply fundamentals, the firm cautioned.
Article content
Article content
Article content
“The collapse of the US-Iran MOU has fundamentally changed our outlook,” Rapidan analysts wrote in a note Friday. “The key question now is whether both sides continue to limit strikes to military targets or allow the conflict to expand to civilian infrastructure, particularly power and desalination facilities.”
Article content
By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.
Article content
The revision reflects a new assumption that shipping through the critical waterway will recover only partially by the end of next year, compared with an earlier forecast for full normalization by early 2027. Transits through Hormuz are expected to recover to roughly 35% of pre-war levels by October and to about 65% over the course of 2027, according to Rapidan.
Article content
Energy markets have been thrown into turmoil after the abrupt collapse of a ceasefire between the US and Iran reignited military hostilities between the two nations amid Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea.
Article content
Wall Street is also penciling in new forecasts for oil as the conflict continues. Earlier this week analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said persistent unrest could drive Brent above $120 a barrel. The oil benchmark topped $100 for the first time in two months on Thursday as tensions between Washington and Tehran escalated and remains on track for a more than 30% monthly advance.
Article content
Rapidan also now anticipates that the global oil market will remain in a deficit for at least another year.
Article content
Those risks are partly offset by weak Chinese demand. If Brent remains in the $90 to $100-a-barrel range, the firm expects Beijing to continue drawing crude inventories by less than 500,000 barrels a day through the end of 2026, before resuming stockpiling early next year.
Article content
English (US)