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With the prospect of more supplies, the Middle East’s main oil benchmark has steadily fallen toward pre-war levels. Before the effective blockade of Hormuz, the strait handled around a fifth of all oil supply in a global market of more than 100 million barrels a day.
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Trump on Wednesday also said Iran would “pay the price” for delaying negotiations for an interim peace deal, after renewed attacks overnight put further strain on a fragile two-month truce. Trump said he retaliated against Iran for shooting down a US Apache helicopter near Hormuz.
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There are other signs of more supplies getting out of the region. In recent days, both Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have offered to sell oil outside Hormuz, indicating that barrels crossed the chokepoint. Satellite imagery show a steady run of ships loading at UAE oil terminals in recent weeks.
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Asian buyers are generally receiving more offers for barrels that are getting out, and expect further shipments to emerge in the coming days and weeks, according to traders involved in the market who asked not to be identified.
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At least two supertankers each capable of hauling 2 million barrels of crude crossed Hormuz late last month and began signaling off the coast of Kuwait.
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Both are managed by Kuwait Oil Tanker Co., according to the Equasis maritime database, and neither has broadcast a signal since then. One shipowner who asked not to be identified also said it had been contracted to carry barrels transferred from Kuwaiti ships that crossed Hormuz, while others said they believed Kuwait secured transit for more than two very large crude carriers.
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State-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corp. didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
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The bigger Kuwaiti flows follow a similar pattern that has emerged for barrels from the UAE. Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. sold at least 14 million barrels of its oil in a tender that concluded at the end of last week, Bloomberg reported on Monday. Those cargoes are due to start loading this month.
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Adnoc is among the firms to have moved crude through Hormuz with transponders off to avoid detection, Bloomberg reported last month. The company has continued to ship barrels at a healthy rate across the strait in recent weeks, according to two people familiar with its operations, who asked not to be identified as the information is private.
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Satellite images also indicate that ships have continued to load at some of the country’s key terminals. An oil tanker was seen loading on six of the eight days there were images at Zirku Island in May, according to Copernicus data. Prior to the war, that terminal was able to load more than 1 million barrels a day of crude and condensate, according to intelligence firm Kpler.
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Adnoc didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
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Before some of the most recent transits, roughly a quarter of the non-Iranian large oil tankers trapped inside the Persian Gulf had escaped, shipping data showed in late May. Around 90 are still trapped, compared with roughly 160 in early April, according to Georgios Sakellariou, a freight analyst at vessel-pool management firm Signal Maritime.
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“The stream of dark transits has increased,” he said. “It’s visible in the reduction in oil stranded inside the Gulf, though still not enough to get back to levels seen before the war.”
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—With assistance from Fiona MacDonald, Jack Wittels, Salma El Wardany, Weilun Soon, Jack Farchy, Thomas Hall and Iain Marlow.
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