Oil Price Today (April 20): Crude oil jumps 6%, nears $100 again despite ceasefire hopes. What’s happening?

Synopsis

Oil prices surged over 6% on Monday. Tensions flared around the Strait of Hormuz after the U.S. and Iran traded accusations of ship targeting. President Trump stated American forces seized an Iranian cargo ship. Iran responded by refusing further peace talks. The conflict has disrupted global oil flows. Experts predict continued price volatility and structurally higher prices.

Oil prices staged a sharp rebound on Monday, rising more than 6% after plunging over 9% in the previous session, as tensions flared again around the Strait of Hormuz. The latest spike followed fresh accusations from both the U.S. and Iran, each blaming the other for violating the ceasefire by targeting ships over the weekend.

On the geopolitical front, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that American forces had seized an Iranian cargo ship attempting to breach its blockade. Iran, in response, said it would not take part in a second round of peace talks, despite Trump’s warning of renewed airstrikes.

Crude oil price on April 20

Brent crude futures climbed $6.11, or 6.76%, to $96.49 a barrel by 2327 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose $6.53, or 7.79%, to $90.38 a barrel.

Before the conflict, the strait accounted for roughly one-fifth of global oil supply. The war, now nearing two months, has severely disrupted these flows.

Market movements remain highly reactive to developments, with oil prices swinging on shifting signals from both sides rather than any clear improvement in supply conditions. The intermittent movement of vessels through the strait highlights the deep uncertainty surrounding the world’s most critical energy chokepoint. Even if tensions ease, a full recovery in oil flows is expected to take several months, experts warn.

On Saturday, Iran tightened its grip over the strait in response to the U.S. blockade, reportedly firing at several vessels and declaring the route closed. This came just hours after it had announced a temporary reopening during a 10-day ceasefire.

What are experts saying?

Brokerage firm Macquarie said that even if tensions cool, oil prices are likely to remain supported in the $85 to $90 range, with a gradual move towards $110 as supply through the Strait of Hormuz improves. It added that if disruptions persist through April, Brent crude could climb as high as $150 per barrel.

Analysts broadly believe crude may be entering a phase of structurally higher prices. With the ceasefire seen as temporary, a return to pre-war levels of $70 to $75 may take several months. In the near term, they expect prices to stay within a range of $80 to $85 on the downside and $95 to $100 on the upside.

Nuvama Institutional Equities cautioned that prolonged closure of the strait, which handles about 20 million barrels per day, could drive crude prices into the $110 to $150 range.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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