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(Bloomberg) — Oil was little changed after posting its biggest monthly decline since 2021, as signs that the Saudi-led OPEC+ alliance may be entering a prolonged period of higher production added to concerns the global trade war will squash demand.
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West Texas Intermediate traded around $58 a barrel after dropping 3.7% on Wednesday, while the most-active Brent contract settled near $61. Reuters reported that Saudi Arabian officials have told allies and industry experts that the kingdom can endure a sustained period of depressed prices, adding to existing concerns that the biggest oil exporter planned to steer OPEC+ to another supply surge next week.
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OPEC+ rocked the crude market in early April with a surprise decision to increase production more than expected from this month, feeding concerns about a global glut as non-member nations including Canada and Guyana also ramp up output. Meanwhile, hopes are fading that there will be quick breakthroughs in US-led trade negotiations, weighing on the outlook for energy demand.
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Data on Wednesday showed the US economy contracted for the first time since 2022, while factory activity in China slipped into the worst contraction since December 2023. That overshadowed more bullish figures showing US crude and gasoline inventories dropped last week.
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Worldwide oil demand was unchanged from year-ago levels in April, at 102 million barrels a day, according to Morgan Stanley. The bank had forecast a 500,000 barrel-a-day increase for last month.
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“The uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook likely contributed to stalled growth, with naphtha imports in East Asia — a key indicator of industrial demand — dropping to five-year lows,” analysts including Prateek Kedia and Natasha Kaneva said in a note.
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