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(Bloomberg) — Oil held an advance, with trade talks between the US and China set to be extended into a second day following hints of progress.
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Brent held above $67 a barrel after rising almost 1% on Monday, while West Texas Intermediate topped $65. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that the discussions with officials from Beijing in London had been “fruitful,” and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cited a “good meeting.”
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Brent has fallen by about 10% this year on fears that persistent global trade tensions will sap economic growth and crimp energy demand, although progress in the US-China negotiations could ease such concerns and buoy risk assets. Oil has also been hurt as the OPEC+ alliance agreed to add production back to the market at a faster-than-expected clip, spurring forecasts for a glut.
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“Crude has preemptively priced in a degree of success in the US-China trade talks,” said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights in Singapore. “We may not know the outcome for another day, and I expect prices to go into a holding pattern until then.”
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Oil’s pricing structure points to near-term tightness, although the reverse is the case further out. Brent’s prompt spread is 80 cents a barrel in backwardation, a bullish pattern, with the nearer contract trading above the next in sequence.
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On the geopolitical front, President Donald Trump expressed concern that Iran was seeking too much in a potential nuclear deal, including the ability to enrich uranium, which he said was unacceptable. Should the two sides reach an agreement, Washington could possibly relax sanctions on Tehran’s crude flows. Trump said there would be another meeting on Thursday with Iranian negotiators.
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