Oil Falls, US Stock Futures Gain on Ceasefire Bets: Markets Wrap

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(Bloomberg) — Oil slumped and US stock futures gained on optimism over a potential diplomatic resolution to the Iran war.

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West Texas Intermediate fell as much as 5.2% to near $107 a barrel at Wednesday’s open after US President Donald Trump said he was in “heated negotiations” over the conflict, with mediator Pakistan seeking a two-week extension of his Tuesday deadline for Tehran to reopen the waterway. Futures for the S&P 500 Index rose 0.9% and the dollar weakened.

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“I can’t tell you, because right now we’re in heated negotiations,” Trump said in a telephone interview with Fox News when asked about the Pakistani request. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement earlier that Trump “has been made aware of the proposal, and a response will come.”

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Trump earlier Tuesday threatened to wipe out Iran’s “whole civilization,” pressing the nation to make an agreement before his Tuesday 8 p.m. New York time deadline.

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Mediators raced to keep ceasefire talks on track after Iran responded by halting its participation in the discussions, according to a person familiar with the matter.

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“Hope remains that Trump’s brinkmanship will produce a last-minute agreement to resolve the situation, or perhaps another postponement of the threat to destroy Iran’s domestic infrastructure,” veteran strategist Louis Navellier said.

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While geopolitical risks remained front and center, traders kept an eye on the latest economic data for clues on any potential impacts of the war.

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Near-term inflation expectations jumped in March by the most in a year as consumers anticipated higher gas and food prices with the onset of war in the Middle East, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey.

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Fed Bank of New York President John Williams told Bloomberg Television his outlook for underlying price pressures was largely unchanged despite his expectation that higher energy costs stemming from the war will boost overall inflation.

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His Chicago counterpart Austan Goolsbee said the spike in oil prices, coupled with low hiring by businesses, raises concern about the US economy.

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“I’m cautious — slash — nervous about it,” he said at an event in Detroit.

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Corporate Highlights:

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  • Apple Inc.’s first foldable phone is on track to arrive during the company’s normal iPhone launch period later this year, people with knowledge of the matter said, rebutting concerns about major manufacturing snags.
  • Intel Corp. is joining Elon Musk’s long-shot effort to develop semiconductors for Tesla Inc., SpaceX and xAI, marking a surprising twist in the chipmaker’s comeback bid.
  • Pacific Investment Management Co. is in talks with Bank of America Corp. to help provide roughly $14 billion of debt financing to build a massive Oracle Corp. data center in Michigan, according to people familiar with the matter.
  • Anthropic PBC said its revenue run rate has now topped $30 billion, up from $9 billion at the end of 2025, and confirmed plans to work with Broadcom Inc. and Google to power its burgeoning operations.

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Some of the main moves in markets:

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Stocks

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  • Nikkei 225 futures rose 0.9% as of 7:11 a.m. Tokyo time
  • S&P/ASX 200 futures rose 0.1%
  • S&P 500 futures rose 0.9%

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Currencies

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  • The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1615
  • The Japanese yen rose 0.1% to 159.43 per dollar
  • The offshore yuan was little changed at 6.8548 per dollar

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Cryptocurrencies

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  • Bitcoin rose 1.3% to $70,236.56
  • Ether rose 2% to $2,156.69

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Commodities

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  • Spot gold rose 0.6% to $4,735.85 an ounce
  • West Texas Intermediate crude fell 4.3% to $108.05 a barrel

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