Oil could hit $150/bbl as Gulf shutdown of 15 million b/d forces demand destruction

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15 million b/d suddenly offline in largest shutdown in industry history

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LONDON/HOUSTON/SINGAPORE, March 10, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) —

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INSIGHT FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

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With 15 million barrels per day of Gulf supply suddenly offline, global oil demand will need to fall to rebalance the market—a process that could require prices to reach $150/bbl, according to new Wood Mackenzie analysis.

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The scale of disruption is unprecedented. Gulf countries in total produce 20 million b/d of liquids, and 15 million b/d of exports have been taken out of the global market. The industry has never faced a loss of supply volumes of this magnitude.

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“When the conflict ends, cranking up the supply chain won’t be swift,” said Simon Flowers, Chairman and Chief Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. “Product barrels in storage at refineries or in port might be moved on vessels quite quickly. But if wells are shut-in for a prolonged period, restarting production to full output could take weeks or even longer.”

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Prices already $100/bbl

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Competition for remaining barrels has already pushed prices above $100/bbl early this week. Markets dependent on exports have been particularly exposed across multiple regions.

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Europe faces especially acute challenges. In 2025, Gulf refineries supplied 60% of Europe’s jet fuel and 30% of its diesel, volumes which are now entirely cut off. Asia, which receives the majority of Gulf crude exports, faces equally severe pressure. Chinese, Indian, and other Asian buyers have been scrambling to secure alternative cargoes, driving up prices for West African and Latin American crude. Competition between Europe and Asia for limited non-Gulf supplies is intensifying price pressure across all regions.

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The prospect of extreme tightness in refined product markets is reflected in super-high crack spreads. Jet-fuel cracks in NW Europe have traded at US$100/bbl (implying close to US$200/bbl Brent) and diesel cracks US$70/bbl, four to five times pre-war levels.

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Strategic stocks and alternative supply offer limited relief

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Strategic petroleum reserves offer some relief but cannot fully offset the supply loss. IEA member countries hold stocks equivalent to 90 days of imports, but sustained releases are unprecedented and IEA members account for less than half of global demand. During the Russia/Ukraine crisis, strategic stock releases did little to prevent prices reaching $125/bbl, and the supply gap from the Gulf shutdown is significantly larger.

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Alternative supply sources also cannot fill the gap. While higher prices could incentivize US producers to accelerate output and forego maintenance, the Lower 48 could add only a few hundred thousand barrels per day over three to six months—a fraction of the 15 million b/d shortfall. With no supply solution available, demand destruction becomes the only rebalancing mechanism.