Ohio State can win it all again but the schedule gives them no margin to breathe

Ohio State has the talent. It has coaching. It just won the national title. But none of that guarantees a return trip to the College Football Playoff.

The biggest threat to a repeat is not the quarterback or the pressure. It is the calendar.

The Buckeyes enter the 2025 season with +550 odds to win it all and a 70.6 percent chance to make the playoffs, according to ESPN Analytics. But they are staring down one of the toughest and most unforgiving schedules in the country.

Texas is waiting in Week 1. Penn State comes in November. The finale is in Ann Arbor. In between are trips to Washington, Illinois and Wisconsin. And just days after facing Penn State, the selection committee will release its first rankings. Every result will be magnified.

November will define the season

If Ohio State wants a first-round bye, it might need to win every game in November. The Buckeyes start the month with a critical matchup against Penn State and will have a bye to prepare. That game could decide the Big Ten championship slot and determine which team earns top-four consideration.

Even with a loss to Texas, a perfect finish with wins over Penn State and Michigan would give the Buckeyes a strong case. But two losses before Selection Day would make their playoff path much more complicated.

The road brings more questions than answers

Ohio State travels to Washington in late September, then heads to Illinois and Wisconsin in back-to-back weeks during October. None of those games are easy, and all of them could become resume-altering if the Buckeyes are not careful.

If Ohio State loses to an unranked opponent, the committee will remember it. That was the case last year when the Buckeyes dropped four spots after a loss to Michigan. The same thing could happen again if the team stumbles against a fringe contender.

What the committee will pay attention to

Style points matter. A strong November, especially with ranked wins over Penn State and Michigan, would keep Ohio State firmly in the conversation. Even at 11–2, the Buckeyes could make a case as the top two-loss team in the country.

But they cannot afford another late collapse. The playoff field is deeper. The schedule is tougher. And the margin for error is paper thin.

This team has the talent to go back-to-back. But if they want to do it, they will need to play their best football when the lights are brightest and the runway is shortest.