Nuggets vs. Thunder Game 5 odds: NBA playoffs bets, predictions

Experienced sports bettors implore others to ignore what they last saw and avoid being a prisoner of the moment.

Failure to do so usually leads to losing bets, as the larger sample size of data is much more predictive than the most recent game. But sometimes that most recent result is impossible to ignore.

That is the case ahead of Tuesday’s Game 5 between the Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder.

They just played Sunday with a game that featured 179 combined points, and currently have an Over/Under of 221 points.

I am taking the Under, but only some of my rationale stems from their past game.

First off, as a series elapses, scoring typically drops. The overarching thought is that each team becomes more and more familiar with the opposing team’s offensive sets and thus can play stronger defense.

In the regular season, teams will never face the same opponent more than twice in a row, but a team’s entire focus for two postseason weeks is on one opponent.

Also, this matchup is trending toward the Under, and I do not see any reason that stops.

Nuggets vs. Thunder Game 5 betting preview

In Games 1 and 2, they averaged 104 possessions. That has dropped to 94.5 in the past two games. The pace is clearly slower.

Denver often plays just two reserves double-digit minutes, and that lack of depth is starting to catch up with them. More importantly, since the Nuggets also needed seven games to eliminate the Los Angeles Clippers, this will be their eighth game in 15 days.

Isaiah Hartenstein shoots over Nikola Jokic. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Plus, three-time MVP Nikola Jokic is showing some fatigue. The big man is shooting just 33.3 percent on 63 shot attempts over his past three games. That comes after shooting 50 percent in the Clippers series and 57.6 percent during the regular season.

OKC’s offense seems to have stalled with Denver’s defense intensifying. The Thunder also have become more measured on offense with that slower pace, and the Nuggets are defending MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander much more effectively late in games.

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Sunday’s rock fight of 179 points involved a short turnaround from Friday night’s Game 3, and the Denver altitude only compounded that.

But under 221 doesn’t need that type of outcome to cash. It just needs a relatively slow-paced or defensive game. And with the average pace dropping nearly 10 possessions the past two games, I think we are headed toward another game with points at a premium.

Nuggets vs. Thunder Game 5 prediction

I have a 41-33-1 ATS record in this Post sports section with a couple of pending plays.

For my next official play, I will take Under 221 in Game 5.

BET: Under 221 (-110, bet365)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. Doug has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.