NSE to debut in test of India investor faith in long-term growth

A decade-long road to an initial public offering for the world’s largest derivatives exchange is at risk of ending with a whimper.

The National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. will make its debut on rival BSE Ltd. Thursday after raising $2.4 billion in an initial public offering, the country’s second-biggest ever. Subdued retail demand for the deal and the gray market indicating a gain of between 2% and 3% suggest that a blowout first day pop is unlikely, even after valuation concerns forced the company to dial back both the size and the price of the listing.

With the debut, the market will now get a chance to weigh in on the debate over NSE’s worth. On the one hand, the company’s long-term growth trajectory drove healthy institutional demand. On the other, and near-term concerns over derivatives volumes, regulatory headwinds and the prospect of additional share supply kept mom-and-pop investors more cautious.

The 226 billion-rupee offering, India’s second biggest, trailing only Hyundai Motor India Ltd.’s 279 billion-rupee share sale in 2024, was subscribed 5.7 times. Large institutional investors were among the biggest bidders, signaling confidence in NSE’s prospects at a valuation that remains elevated compared with some global exchange operators.

If the premium quoted late Wednesday by gray market platforms including IPOWatch holds, NSE would debut with a market capitalization of about $47.5 billion, making it the world’s eighth-largest listed exchange by market value, compared with London Stock Exchange Group Plc’s about $52.5 billion.

While investors broadly remain positive about NSE’s long-term prospects, the stock’s performance in the months after listing may hinge on how much additional supply comes to market as lock-in periods for existing shareholders expire.

“There’s little doubt that NSE is an attractive stock to own over the long term, but its near-term performance will likely depend on how much additional supply hits the market over the next few months as lock-in periods expire for existing shareholders,” said Ambareesh Baliga, an independent market analyst.

NSE’s outlook has come under greater scrutiny after regulators tightened rules aimed at curbing excessive speculation in India’s derivatives market. That’s particularly important for the exchange because transaction fees from options trading accounted for more than 60% of operating revenue in fiscal 2026.

Still, NSE has the potential to grow 15% to 20% annually over the next decade, supported by continued product innovation, longer trading hours, its dominant position in equities and emerging revenue streams from commodities, data and other businesses, according to Raamdeo Agrawal, chairman and co-founder of Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

“Regulatory headwinds, however, could temper that growth in the short term,” Agrawal said.

Bloomberg

Several large investors, including Life Insurance Corp. of India, Norges Bank Investment Management, ICICI Prudential Asset Management Co., Quant Mutual Fund and Mirae Asset Mutual Fund, were among the top bidders in NSE’s main book, people familiar with the matter have said.

Goldman Sachs Asset Management, HSBC, Fidelity, Singapore sovereign wealth fund GIC, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and Eastspring were among the major investors that participated in the anchor book.

Thursday’s listing will cap NSE’s long road to the public markets after its first attempt to go public in 2016 was held up by regulatory and governance issues.