Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner prediction: Australian Open odds, picks, best bet

Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. But the best-case scenario is to be both.

That’s been the story for both Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open.

Both players were rewarded with a massive break in their run to the semifinals, and they will count themselves incredibly fortunate to be still chasing a historic title.

For Djokovic, he’s looking for his 25th Grand Slam and 10th Australian Open trophy, while Sinner is hoping to complete a three-peat.

Sinner is a prohibitive -1450 favorite over Djokovic in the semifinals, and is -130 to win the tournament at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sinner vs. Djokovic odds, prediction

Djokovic was rolling through the tournament until the quarterfinals. The Serb was down, two sets to love, against Lorenzo Musetti, but the Italian had to retire from the match due to a leg injury. Djokovic was also handed a walkover in the Round of 16 when Jakub Mensik was injured before their contest.

Novak Djokovic is looking for his 25th Grand Slam title. AFP via Getty Images

Sinner’s big break came in the third round against Eliot Spizzirri.

Sinner dropped the first set against the unseeded American and was down a break in the third, when the tournament organizers called for the roof to be closed due to the ‘heat rule.’

Get the lowdown on the Best USA Sports Betting Sites and Apps

• Check out the best sports betting sites and apps

The break allowed Sinner to deal with cramping and recover, after which he dominated the match.

Sinner is no stranger to breaks like that, as he was down two sets to love against Grigor Dimitrov in the Round of 16 at last year’s Wimbledon, but the Bulgarian injured himself midway through the third set and was forced to retire. Sinner won the tournament a few days later.

There is no doubt that Sinner was lucky against Spizzirri — he’s said it himself — but the World No. 2 has also cast aside any doubters with his most recent performances. He walloped Luciano Darderi in the Round of 16 and swept aside Ben Shelton in the quarterfinals. There’s no cause for concern here.

The same can’t be said of Djokovic. Thanks to the retirements of Mensik and Musetti, we haven’t seen the 24-time major champion pass a stiff test. He made things look easy against three unseeded players in the early rounds, but that’s not going to make anybody feel confident that he can upset Sinner, who has won five straight against Djokovic.

This one could be over in a hurry.

The Play: Under 30.5 games (+116, FanDuel)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.