Nigeria’s Reforms Revered by Markets Become Political Problem for Tinubu

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“The current poor supply has already determined how I will vote,” said Abayomi Michael, a 53-year-old Lagos-based architect and IT consultant. “He promised and the needle didn’t even move, despite higher tariffs. Fail.”

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Nigeria has the world’s largest population without access to electricity, with about 87 million people lacking power, according to World Bank data. For millions more, supply remains unreliable and inadequate.

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Voter Sentiment  

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For Feyintola Olaleye, a 55-year-old drinks seller in Ibadan, having reliable and affordable electricity is the difference between profit and loss.

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Her shop relies on refrigeration to keep drinks cold. Grid power was already unreliable, but outages worsened last year. The solar-powered system she installed eventually failed under the strain. By the time she bought a generator, fuel prices had surged.

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Operating costs rose more than 40% in the first quarter, largely because of fuel expenses fanned by supply constraints caused by the Iran war. 

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“I will vote for anybody whose single agenda is to tackle electricity,” she said. Politicians who promise to fix everything usually end up solving nothing, she added.

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Frustrations over reforms are also showing up in political sentiment.

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A survey of 829 people conducted by SBM Intelligence last month across all six of Nigeria’s geopolitical zones found Tinubu’s net favorability rating at minus 58.5%, compared with minus 31.8% for rival Atiku Abubakar and 58.3% for Obi. Only 11% of respondents said Nigeria is moving in the right direction. 

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“Insecurity and terrorism are the top concerns for 45% of respondents, while another third see the economy and insecurity as a single crisis,” Ikemesit Effiong, the firm’s head of research, said. “That is not a robust platform for reelection.”

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Whether Abubakar and Obi can capitalize on the polling is an open question.

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“The polling shows there is definitely a constituency on which the opposition can build a winning campaign,” MacEbong said. “However, they must quickly get themselves organized across all 36 states and craft a winning message around insecurity and cost of living in order to activate that constituency and get them to the polls.” 

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Opposition figures have started framing the election around the gap between economic indicators and lived reality.

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“Nigerians have seen more rhetoric than results,” said Phrank Shaibu, a spokesman for former Vice President Abubakar, who has run for president six times. “Power supply remains erratic, tariffs have gone up, and millions of Nigerians are paying more for less.”

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The presidency rejects suggestions that the reforms have had no positive impact on Nigerians’ lives.

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Oyedele has noted that per capita income grew by nearly 10% last year indicating a marked reduction in poverty levels and Temitope Ajayi, a presidential spokesperson, said Tinubu’s administration has made progress on electricity supply.

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“Tinubu is working very hard to deliver on his promise and commitment to Nigerians on stable electricity supply,” Ajayi said. 

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The administration has spent the past three years tackling structural problems in the power sector, including debts owed to generation companies and gas suppliers, metering gaps and weak transmission infrastructure, he said. “This remaining one year of the first term will consolidate all the initiatives and investments in the power sector.”

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Politically, however, the challenge may no longer be if reforms are economically necessary, but whether Nigerians still believe the hardship will eventually pay off, Effiong said.

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“The shift from viewing subsidy removal and energy shocks as reform to seeing them as mismanagement tends to happen when households stop expecting future benefits.”

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—With assistance from Mustapha Adamu and Robert Brand.

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