Nigel Farage’s Reform Wins Open UK Seat in Blow to Starmer

Votes are counted in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election in Runcorn on May 1. Photo by Anthony Devlin /Photographer: Anthony Devlin/Get

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(Bloomberg) — Nigel Farage’s Reform UK won a key parliamentary by-election following a recount, in a blow to Prime Minister Keir Starmer, fueling concerns in his Labour Party that he’s failing to slow the rise of the populist right.

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The election came down to a knife’s edge in the constituency of Runcorn and Helsby, near Liverpool, in one of the closest special election results in British history. Only six votes separated the final result on Friday, with Reform’s Sarah Pochin securing 12,645 votes and Labour’s Karen Shore 12,639.

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Both parties secured 38.7% of the vote share, a huge swing from the 18.1% Reform tallied in the general election 10 months ago against Labour’s 52.9% at that time.

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The Runcorn vote takes place alongside local and mayoral elections in England, in what is the first big electoral test since Starmer’s Labour party rose to power with a resounding landslide victory last year. Counts are taking place in more than 1,600 council seats as well as six mayoral elections. 

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Labour won mayoral races in North Tyneside, the West of England, and Doncaster, with Reform in second place in all three places. Reform won the mayoral race in Greater Lincolnshire, while picking up dozens of council seats. All results are expected by 7 p.m. on Friday.

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Farage, one of the key figures in the Brexit campaign, is seeking to take Reform from a fringe party that won five seats in last year’s general election to challenge for power in the next national vote due by mid-2029. The swing toward Farage’s party sends a signal to global investors that the populist tide that propelled Donald Trump to power in the US remains strong despite a resurgent left in places such as Canada. 

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Labour noted in a statement that such mid-term elections are rarely won by the party in power. The ruling party was also damaged in the by-election because the seat was vacated after the former Member of Parliament, Mike Amesbury, was convicted for assaulting a constituent.

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“Voters are still rightly furious with the state of the country after 14 years of failure and clearly expect the government to move faster,” Labour said. 

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Starmer, who has sought to build a relationship with Trump amid negotiations over trade and Ukraine, has avoided a clash with the American president that might’ve have drawn a starker contrast with the Trump-backing Farage. Pochin, Reform’s newest MP, described Farage as “a future prime minister” following her win.

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Early results portend a difficult set of local elections for both of the main political parties. Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch is facing a particular challenge, with her party defending seats it last won at the height of Tory premier Boris Johnson’s vaccine bounce in 2021. She has said she expects the vote to be “tough.” 

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Farage dismissed talk of a pact with the Conservatives and mocked Badenoch, who has rejected such a deal. “Please don’t resign. We want you to stay on as leader. I’ll put some money in, if you like, to keep you there,” he told Sky News on Friday morning. 

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“This is heartland Labour Party,” Farage said in Runcorn after the vote. “Their vote has collapsed, and much of it’s come to us. And that does away with the sort of media narrative that somehow it’s just us versus the Conservatives — It’s not. This is a whole different politics.”

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—With assistance from Alex Morales, Alan Wong and Jenni Marsh.

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