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22 hours ago
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Nifty could continue to trend lower and experience sharp swings this week as geopolitical tensions in West Asia persist, with no clarity on a definitive resolution yet. Nifty 50 once again closed below 23,000 on Friday, and trading below this level could drag the index to 22,500–22,400 zone, according to analysts.
DHARMESH SHAH
HEAD OF TECHNICAL RESEARCH, ICICI SECURITIES
Where is Nifty headed?
For a meaningful pullback to materialise, Nifty must reclaim its short-term moving average (23,800) and establish a ‘higher high–higher low’ pattern on weekly chart in the upcoming truncated week. Failure to do so means the possibility of a prolonged correction cannot be ruled out, wherein critical long-term support is placed in 21,900–21,700 zone.
Our support is based on the following observations: a) Past 25 years’ data suggest that there have been eight occasions where bull market corrections were arrested, with an average decline of 17%. b) Since 2003, on multiple occasions, Nifty has respected the long-term 200-week EMA (barring 2008 and 2020), currently placed at 21,930. c) The April 2025 panic low is placed at 21,743. d) Whenever 85% of Nifty 500 universe trades below their 50- and 200-SMAs, and the net daily advance-decline suggests that only 30 stocks are in positive territory, it signals capitulation extremes. Post these extremes, the index has delivered a median rally of 23% in the subsequent 6–12 months.
Trading Strategies: Option Strategy for April
Buy 1 lot of 23,800 CE @ 322
Buy 1 lot of 21,800 PE @ 379
Sell 2 lots of 24,100 CE @ 230
Sell 2 lots of 21,500 PE @ 311
Total inflow is 381 points (Rs 24,765 per lot), which is the minimum profit if the index stays between 21,800 and 23,800. The maximum profit is 650 points (Rs 42,000 per lot) if the index closes at 24,100 or 21,500.
The breakeven range is 20,800 on the downside and 24,800 on the upside. As long as Nifty trades within this range, the strategy remains profitable, with gains between Rs 24,765 and Rs 42,000 per lot. The approximate margin required is Rs 2,20,000.
AgenciesTOP PICKS FOR THE WEEK
Bharti Airtel: Buy at Rs 1,790–1,845, Stop Loss at Rs 1,684, Target: Rs 2,032
Stock has rebounded from its key 20-month EMA, which has held as support in past corrections. After an ~18% fall over four months, it is showing a familiar correction pattern, offering a favourable risk-reward buying opportunity.
DLF: Sell at Rs 523–535, Stop Loss at Rs 546, Target: Rs 502.
Stock has been trading below all its key moving averages, indicating a negative short-term bias. Structurally, the stock has witnessed a multi-month support breakdown, with a lower high–lower low structure on the weekly time frame.
RAHUL SHARMA
HEAD - TECHNICAL & DERIVATIVE RESEARCH, JM FINANCIAL SERVICES
Where is Nifty headed?
Nifty formed back-to-back doji candles on weekly charts, indicating indecision. Friday’s sell-off came on higher-than-average volumes, with FII shorts in the index at their highest level (2.79 lakh short) since the war began. India VIX has risen to sub-27 levels, suggesting continued gap openings. The daily trend remains down, with significant short additions seen on Friday in Nifty, Bank Nifty, and Midcap Nifty futures. Immediate support is at 22,471, below which the index could test 22,000. Resistance is placed at 22,900 and 23,200.
Trading Strategies: Look to add Nifty ATM puts of next week’s expiry on a bounce back around 23,000 for downside targets of 22,470 and lower. Investors can look to add Nifty ETFs in the range of 21,700–22,000 if the correction extends this week.
TOP STOCKS FOR THE WEEK
Reliance Industries: Sell at CMP Rs 1,348, Stop Loss at Rs 1,380, Target: Rs 1,310/1,280
A bearish breakdown was seen on daily charts on Friday, along with a rise in volumes.
Bharti Airtel: Buy at CMP Rs 1,843, Stop Loss at Rs 1,795, Target: Rs 1,900/1,950
A bullish divergence was seen on daily charts relative to Nifty in the last two weeks, along with a rise in volumes on Friday.
DHUPESH DHAMEJA
DERIVATIVES ANALYST, SAMCO SECURITIES
Where is Nifty headed?
The index remains in a lower high–lower low formation, with rebounds being sold into and the short-term trend firmly bearish. Nifty faced rejection near its 10-DEMA and has breached the 22,950–23,000 support zone, now acting as resistance. Weak momentum (RSI below 40) and elevated India VIX near 26.8 point to continued volatility and downside risk.
As long as Nifty stays below 23,000, the bias remains negative with targets of 22,500 and 22,200. A sustained move above 23,000– 23,100 could trigger short covering towards 23,400–23,500.
Trading Strategies: Adopt a sell-on-rise approach near 22,900–23,000 with a stoploss above 23,100, aiming for 22,600–22,500 on the downside. At the same time, options traders can deploy a Bear Call Spread (sell 22,500 CE and buy 25,800 CE of the 07 April 2026 expiry) to benefit from overhead resistance and limited risk exposure.
TOP STOCKS FOR THE WEEK
Ather Energy: Buy at CMP Rs 796, Stop Loss at Rs 748, Target: Rs 880
Ather Energy is showing strong bullish momentum after breaking above its previous all-time high zone of Rs 780–790 and hitting fresh highs, signalling trend continuation. The stock continues to form a higher high–higher low structure, indicating sustained buying interest.
Emcure Pharma: Buy at CMP Rs 1,652, Stop Loss at Rs 1,540, Target: Rs 1,840
Stock shows a strong bullish continuation after breaking above the Rs 1,580 resistance, a key supply zone. It continues to form a higher high–higher low structure, indicating a strengthening trend and accumulation. The breakout is backed by improving participation, signalling demand-driven price action and reinforcing the uptrend.
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