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It has been more than 20 years since the hockey world has been treated to a Battle of Ontario in the Stanley Cup playoffs, but the time has come to renew the rivalry between the Ottawa Senators and Toronto Maple Leafs.
The Leafs won the Atlantic Division title with 108 points and were terrific down the stretch, while the Senators clinched a playoff berth for the first time since 2017 with a 97-point campaign.
The Maple Leafs are a -192 favorite to win the best-of-7 series, which gets underway Sunday night at Scotiabank Arena in downtown Toronto.
Let’s dive into a few different ways to find value in what should be a slobberknocker of a series between two bitter rivals.
Ottawa Senators to win the series (+158, FanDuel)
This number opened much shorter, but the Leafs have taken money throughout the week, which has put some value on the Sens.
It’s also an interesting development because the market has been skeptical of Toronto for much of the season, as the Leafs were not a strong 5-on-5 team and instead relied on terrific goaltending from Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll to be the difference.
Ottawa has a stellar goalie of its own, Linus Ullmark, so that advantage could be muted in this best-of-seven.
Toronto’s hot finish has got plenty of tongues wagging that this spring could be different for the tormented Leafs, but that has caused the market to overlook the fact that Ottawa has also been superb down the stretch.
The Leafs went 17-6-2 over their final 25 games, good enough for a 118-point pace, but the Sens were right there with them at 16-6-3, which puts them at a 115-point projection over 82 games.
Given the odds, you’d think the tale of the tape for this matchup would be one-sided. But, in reality, it’s the underdog that boasts the stronger statistical profile.
Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll have been one of the best goaltending tandems in the NHL this season. James Guillory-Imagn ImagesOttawa finished the season ahead of the Maple Leafs in shot attempt share, expected goals rate and high-danger scoring chance percentage at 5-on-5, while the Buds owned the better goal difference at 5-on-5 and overall.
But a lot of Toronto’s success can be attributed to the league’s third-highest PDO (shooting percentage + save percentage) at 5-on-5. If either of those numbers dip, the margin for error shrinks considerably.
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And because this is the Leafs we’re talking about, we need to discuss pressure.
Toronto has famously come up short in the playoffs in each of the last eight postseasons (including losing a best-of-five in The Bubble), and has one series win since 2004.
If the Buds fall behind in the early stages of this best-of-7, the heat will ratchet up to a point where it could impact their play. Ottawa, on the other hand, is playing with house money.
Toronto should be the favorite, but this number is too wide.
Dylan Cozens has 16 points in 21 games since being traded to Ottawa. Getty ImagesDylan Cozens to lead the series in goals (24/1, FanDuel)
There is a lot of scoring power in this series.
Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Brady Tkachuk, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, Matthew Knies and Tim Stutzle all can shoulder the load for their respective teams, but that also means there’s a good chance that the scoring is spread among these stars over the course of this best-of-7 series.
Rather than pay a shorter price for one of the headliners, I’ll skip down to Dylan Cozens at a big price.
The former Sabre has been terrific since being acquired at the trade deadline, posting 16 points in 21 games, and he should play a big role as Ottawa’s No. 2 center.
Cozens will also feature on the top power-play unit.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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