NHL draft lottery odds: How important is it for the Maple Leafs, Blackhawks to land in the top five?

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As all eyes turn to the nail-biting race to get into the playoffs in the Western Conference and Eastern Conference, others are looking at the race at the bottom of the NHL standings.

Frank Seravalli reported that the NHL’s draft lottery will be held on May 5, a date many teams on this list have circled on their calendars.

With that, the top teams in the draft lottery haven’t really changed in order since last week.

At any rate, here is the latest ranking and odds for the upcoming draft lottery, as of March 20.

1. Vancouver Canucks, 18.5 Percent

It doesn’t look like any team will be able to catch the Vancouver Canucks in the lottery race this season, barring some spectacular winning streak from the Canucks.

They sit at the very bottom of the league with 50 points in 68 games. Vancouver has a mighty minus-76 goal differential and just eight wins at home this year.

With a campaign as bad as this one, no one deserves more help through the draft than the Canucks do.

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2. Calgary Flames, 13.5 Percent

The Calgary Flames are the second of four Canadian franchises in the bottom 10 of the NHL standings. Calgary could certainly use an elite prospect in its system, and preferably get them into the NHL as soon as possible.

Despite missing the playoffs for the past three seasons, the Flames lack exciting, promising youngsters in their lineup. Aside from defenseman Zayne Parekh and goaltender Dustin Wolf - who will be turning 25 in April - they don’t have many promising players on the NHL roster.

They’re hoping that will change with this 2026 draft lottery, which could help them land a big fish and execute on the eight picks they have in the first three rounds of the draft.

3. New York Rangers, 11.5 Percent

Are the New York Rangers expecting to be competitive again next year, considering GM Chris Drury labelled the team’s status as a “retool” in the letter he sent out?

But the direction of the franchise could all be determined by where they land in the draft lottery. If their luck keeps them a top-three team in the draft order, maybe Drury could turn the ship around in a positive way.

However, if they drop a few places, the Rangers’ return to competitiveness may take longer than the organization would like.

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4. Chicago Blackhawks, 9.5 Percent

This is not where the Chicago Blackhawks want to be, nor should they be. With Connor Bedard, Frank Nazar, Spencer Knight, and a few young promising blueliners such as Artyom Levshunov, the Blackhawks should be growing.

It’s a different story if Chicago is hanging around the ninth or 10th spot in the lottery rankings, indicating they are in a more competitive position. But in a top-five position, the Blackhawks are practically in the same spot as they were when Bedard was drafted in 2023.

5. St. Louis Blues, 8.5 Percent

With how open and public the St. Louis Blues and GM Doug Armstrong were about being sellers at the trade deadline, they might be hoping for a better position than fifth in the draft lottery.

Although keeping Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou around won’t help their chances of dropping in the standings, nonetheless, with those two stars, as well as goaltender Jordan Binnington, some roster players can be moved for high draft picks.

6. Winnipeg Jets, 7.5 Percent

The Winnipeg Jets are one of those teams that will possibly be looking to get back into playoff contention as early as next season. After winning the Presidents’ Trophy last year, this could very well have been a one-off season.

Whatever pick they earn, and it could be a high number, they can use to steer back onto the path of playoff contenders. Or even like the case last year, Stanley Cup contenders.

The Jets are very veteran-heavy, so some youth in the lineup could be a breath of fresh air.

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7. Toronto Maple Leafs, 6.5 Percent

With the way their season has gone, the Toronto Maple Leafs are clearly open to getting younger and faster, and are certainly not opposed to trying to land in the top five of this draft.

The Boston Bruins own the Maple Leafs’ first-rounder this season, but it’s top-five protected. So if Toronto is going to pack it in this season, might as well make an effort to keep that pick because the Philadelphia Flyers could take the Leafs’ first-round pick in 2027 if it’s not in the top 10.

Leafs GM Brad Treliving has gotten his team into some trouble with these moves, complicating their drafting chances, so they’ll have to take advantage of what they’re given.

8. San Jose Sharks, 6 Percent

Thanks to a weak Western Conference this year, the next three teams on the list are all in the playoff hunt, with an opportunity to draft in the top 10.

The San Jose Sharks land in that conversation, and it’s not a terrible place to be for them. They’ve grown plenty this season, filtering in and out of a playoff spot with such a young core in the process of growing.

If they can make another smart pick in the 2026 draft while taking steps forward this regular season, San Jose will be in a great spot for years to come. Sharks GM Mike Grier deserves his flowers for how he’s run the organization.

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9. Nashville Predators, 5 Percent

The Nashville Predators are also between playoff contention and in the mix for the draft lottery. However, with the makeup of their roster, a core of veterans such as Roman Josi, Ryan O’Reilly, Filip Forsberg, Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault, and others, the focus in Nashville should be to make the playoffs.

At the same time, the Predators’ organization faces some uncertainty as they search for their next GM, with Barry Trotz set to retire. So, should Trotz really make any grand, franchise-altering decisions when someone else will take charge in the near future?

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10. Seattle Kraken, 3.5 Percent

The Seattle Kraken have one playoff appearance in their history, and are potentially competing for another this season.

Seattle still awaits the emergence of prospects such as Jake O’Brien, Jagger Firkus, and a pair of WHLers, Julius Miettinen and Ryden Evers. Not to mention Berkly Catton, who now appears to be an NHL regular.

Until then, the Kraken will remain a team in the middle of the pack, but exciting times are ahead, with already an abundance of youth coming through the system. Hopefully, they’ll be making a difference in the NHL soon.

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