NHL analytics expert warns Panthers against Sam Bennett's $64,000,000 contract extension - "May not age very well"

Florida Panthers forward Sam Bennett may end up becoming a costly anchor for the club, analytics expert Dom Luszczyszyn believes.

In a July 31 article in The Athletic, Luszczyszyn questioned the potential impact of Bennett’s freshly signed eight-year, $64 million contract.

In particular, Luszczyszyn expressed his concern regarding the contract’s length, especially as the contract ages. That situation prompted Luszczyszyn to declare:

“In a vacuum, $8 million for Bennett is too much and so too is an eight-year term that will take up most of his 30s. In a vacuum, this deal may not age very well and it’s on this list for that reason (the first 3-4 years are fine).”

Consequently, Luszczyszyn listed Sam Bennett’s contract extension as the eighth-worst contract in the NHL at the moment.

Luszczyszyn did provide a ray of hope for this deal. He noted that Bennett isn’t paid to score 100 points during the regular season. He’s paid to elevate his game and become a dominant force during the postseason.

Bennett’s Conn Smythe Trophy win this past postseason exemplifies why the Florida Panthers risked signing him to the AAV and term that they did. But given the context of the Panthers, Luszczyszyn concluded:

“Signed by another team, Bennett’s new deal would’ve been incredibly risky. For the Panthers, and the Panthers only, it’s a risk they can easily afford.”

That statement makes sense when considering that other players like Aaron Ekblad, Aleksander Barkov, and Matthew Tkachuk have given the club discounts to remain with a winning organization. Otherwise, Sam Bennett’s deal would have been a disaster for any other club.

Sam Bennett’s contract worth slightly over half its book value

Bennett landed the 2025 Conn Smythe Trophy - Source: Imagn

The piece in The Athletic contrasted Sam Bennett’s new contract’s book value to its estimated market value.

According to The Athletic’s Net Ratings, Bennett’s contract is worth $5.5 million in terms of market value. Moreover, the deal has an estimated 20% Positive Value Probability.

Those numbers show that Sam Bennett’s contract has a surplus value of -$20 million. In other words, the Florida Panthers overpaid Sam Bennett by $20 million.

The bulk of Bennett’s +4.7 Net Rating, according to The Athletic, is driven by his offensive play. His offensive Net Rating is +5.8, ranking him at 83%. His 95% rating for 5-on-5 play is part of what makes him so dangerous on the ice.

The drawback is Bennett’s -1.1 defensive rating. Bennett’s 28% defensive rating makes him somewhat of a one-dimensional player. But that’s something the Panthers are fully aware of.

That situation ranks Bennett’s contract among the worst in the NHL. But Bennett’s desire to remain in Florida and his proven playoff track record drove the Panthers to sign Bennett for that number.

As long as Bennett continues to deliver in the postseason, Panthers fans won’t complain about the apparent overpay this summer.

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Edited by Nestor Quixtan