NHL 2026-27 odds, predictions: Fade the Islanders in Matthew Schaefer’s second season

Seven weeks before NHL training camps open, we already have a good sense of what the betting market thinks of the 2026-27 season.

For the New York Islanders, it’s not flattering.

Most sportsbooks have the Isles as the longest shot to win the Metropolitan Division, and they’re near the bottom of the Eastern Conference futures board alongside the Boston Bruins and Detroit Red Wings.

At DraftKings, the Islanders are 150/1 to win the Stanley Cup, the longest odds of any team in the East.

The market isn’t projecting the Isles to be awful. Their season point total sits at 88.5, but oddsmakers expect them to struggle in an Eastern Conference that looks set to return to being a gauntlet after an unusual 2025-26 campaign, when perennial contenders like the Florida Panthers and Toronto Maple Leafs took unexpected steps back.

There will be plenty of Islander fans who think this is a harsh projection for a team that has a handful of terrific pieces. Matthew Schaefer should only get better in his sophomore campaign. Ilya Sorokin was just the runner-up for the Vezina Trophy. The club hired one of the most respected coaches in the league, Pete DeBoer. And while the forward group may not be elite, there’s a lot to like about a core of Bo Horvat, Mat Barzal, Simon Holmstrom, and Kyle Palmieri.

Throw in some bounce-back candidates and emerging talents like Cal Ritchie and Victor Eklund, and you can see the case for the Islanders springing a surprise.

The problem is the case against the Islanders is a lot more robust.

It starts with their environment. The East is going to be a beast this season.

Ilya Sorokin of the Islanders. Corey Sipkin for the NY POST

The Carolina Hurricanes return most of the same group that just won the Stanley Cup. The Panthers added Brady Tkachuk to a roster that is one season removed from back-to-back championships. The Montreal Canadiens are primed to join the elite ranks of the league. The Washington Capitals loaded up in the summer. The Tampa Bay Lightning are the Tampa Bay Lightning. And we haven’t even mentioned the Buffalo Sabres, who are coming off their best season in 20 years.

It’s hard to envision a world where the Islanders can compete with that group. They’ve just got too many holes. The biggest of which is on the blueline.

Outside of Schaefer, there are more questions than answers on the blueline. Adam Pelech is a steadying presence, but last campaign was his first healthy one since 2021-22. He missed at least a quarter of the previous three seasons.

While Pelech has been consistent when on the ice, the opposite is true of Scott Mayfield, Ryan Pulock, and Alexander Romanov, all of whom return and will be expected to play big roles for DeBoer.

All three are best served as bottom-pair, defensive-defensemen, but the Islanders are not deep enough for that to be the reality. It’s not good when half your blueline is going to be asked to do more than they’re likely capable of.

The overall age of the roster, is also a red flag. For a team looking to the future, the Islanders have 15 players over the age of 30.

It’s also hard to see how the Islanders will be able to drastically improve on their power play. Perhaps the coaching change helps, but this team has finished 30th, 19th, 31st, and 30th, respectively, on the man advantage over the last four years. More of the same is to be expected.

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The concerns spill over into the front office. General manager Mathieu Darche spent the offseason selling fans on the cap space the Islanders will have next summer, not the team they’ll ice this fall.

Schaefer, Sorokin, and DeBoer make anything possible. But it’s tough to buy into a team whose own front office appears to be betting on the 2027-28 season.

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.